尿素日报：现货价格弱稳，关注印标投标情况-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: UR01 - 05 short at high prices - Inter - variety: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Spot prices are weakly stable, and attention should be paid to the bidding situation of Indian tenders - Enterprises have recently lowered their quotes, and low - price transactions have improved. The transactions in the mainstream regions have improved, but after some manufacturers slightly raised their quotes, the transactions cooled down. Low - price transactions in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia continued - Some areas are in the process of autumn fertilization for agriculture. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has decreased. The compound fertilizers required for winter wheat are mainly for inventory clearance. Due to more autumn rains, the fertilizer demand for winter wheat this year may be postponed to mid - to late October. Recently, the weather in the autumn harvest areas has improved, and the shipment of compound fertilizers is expected to improve. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the improvement in spot sentiment - The operating rate of melamine has rebounded, with rigid demand for procurement. With the release of new production capacity, the supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose in the medium - to long - term - The current inventory accumulation is mainly in Inner Mongolia. In late October, compound fertilizer plants in Northeast China will gradually start production. Attention should be paid to the procurement rhythm in Northeast China - Urea is still affected by export sentiment. September and October are still the export window periods. India's RCF announced a urea import tender on October 1st, with the tender closing on October 15th, the offer validity period until October 30th, and the latest shipping date on December 10th. The urea export policy may still change, and attention should be paid to the subsequent dynamics of urea exports [1][2] Summary by Directory Urea Basis Structure - Include figures such as Shandong urea small - particle market price, Henan urea small - particle market price, Shandong main - continuous basis, Henan main - continuous basis, urea main - continuous contract price, 1 - 5 spread, 5 - 9 spread, and 9 - 1 spread [6][7][17] Urea Production - Include figures such as urea weekly production and urea plant maintenance loss [20][25] Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - Include figures such as production cost, spot production profit, disk production profit, national capacity utilization rate, coal - based capacity utilization rate, and gas - based capacity utilization rate [23][32][35] Urea Outer - Market Price and Export Profit - Include figures such as urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea, urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia, urea small - particle FOB in China, urea large - particle CFR in China, the difference between urea small - particle FOB in the Baltic Sea and China's FOB minus 30, the difference between urea large - particle CFR in Southeast Asia and China's FOB, urea export profit, and disk export profit [34][39][42] Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - Include figures such as compound fertilizer operating rate, melamine operating rate, and days of orders to be delivered [49][50][51] Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Include figures such as upstream in - plant inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, main - contract holding volume, and main - contract trading volume [54][57][61]