FICC日报：贸易事件波动大，盘面调整-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Trade events are volatile, with China taking a strong stance in the trade war, leading to a change from morning's volume - shrinking decline to afternoon's volume - expanding decline in the market. The market shows a defensive trend, with high - priced stocks falling and low - priced leading stocks rising. Hot sectors are in adjustment, and cyclical sectors are expected to stabilize and rebound. The strategy of earning basis spread can be gradually implemented [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Trade Situation: Domestically, the Premier emphasized the need to implement counter - cyclical regulation, expand domestic demand, and improve the industrial ecosystem. Internationally, the US implemented final measures for a 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, and China countered by banning transactions with 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce urged the US to correct its wrong practices [1] - Index Adjustment: In the spot market, A - share indexes declined, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.62% to 3865.23 points and the ChiNext Index down 3.99%. Banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors led the gains, while communication, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and computer sectors led the losses. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was about 2.6 trillion yuan. Overseas, Powell hinted at a possible halt in balance - sheet shrinkage and a potential 25 - basis - point interest rate cut this month. US stock indexes closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average up 0.44% to 46270.46 points [2] - Futures Market: In the futures market, the basis of IF, IH, and IM rebounded. The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures increased simultaneously [2] Strategy - Due to China's strong stance in the trade war, the market showed a defensive trend. High - priced stocks continued to fall, low - priced leading stocks rebounded, and cyclical sectors are expected to stabilize. The strategy of earning basis spread can be gradually implemented [3] Macro - economic Charts - The report includes charts showing the relationship between the US dollar index and A - share trends, US Treasury yields and A - share trends, RMB exchange rates and A - share trends, and US Treasury yields and A - share style trends [6][10][12] Spot Market Tracking Charts - Stock Index Performance: On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3865.23, down 0.62%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 12895.11, down 2.54%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2955.98, down 3.99%. Other major indexes also showed varying degrees of decline [14] - Market Volume and Margin Trading: Charts show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Futures Market Tracking Charts - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM all increased. For example, the trading volume of IF was 188092, an increase of 19813, and the open interest was 284388, an increase of 1029 [17] - Basis: The basis of IF, IH, and IM rebounded. For instance, the basis of IF's current - month contract was 1.34, an increase of 9.72 [38] - Inter - delivery Spread: The report provides data on the inter - delivery spread of stock index futures, including the spread between different contract months such as the next - month and current - month, and the next - season and current - month [47][48]