油料日报：豆一遇霜供需紧，降雨困花生需求端-20251015

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3][6] Group 2: Report Core View - The soybean market shows a tight supply - demand relationship due to potential frost damage to the yet - to - be - harvested soybeans in Northeast China and farmers' reluctance to sell, while the peanut market has limited price increase due to weak demand despite supply changes in different regions [3][4] Group 3: Market Analysis of Soybeans - Futures: The closing price of the bean - one 2511 contract yesterday was 3953.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.00 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The basis of edible bean spot is A11 + 87, an increase of 8 (+ 32.14%) from the previous day [1] - Market information: New - season soybeans in the Northeast market are increasing in supply, with price polarization. Low - protein common beans are 1.75 - 1.8 yuan/jin, 39% protein beans are 1.9 yuan/jin, and 40%+ protein beans are 1.95 - 2 yuan/jin. The prices of tower - grain beans also vary by protein content. Enterprises are actively purchasing, and the new - grain price is expected to stabilize in the short term [2] - Weather impact: Frost is expected in Northeast China around October 18, which may affect the yield and quality of soybeans. Traders are actively buying, but farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to a tight supply - demand relationship and rising purchase prices [3] Group 4: Market Analysis of Peanuts - Futures: The closing price of the peanut 2511 contract yesterday was 7864.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 38.00 yuan/ton (- 0.48%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The average spot price of peanuts is 8360.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.00 yuan/ton (- 0.12%) from the previous day. The spot basis is PK11 + 336.00, an increase of 38.00 (+ 12.75%) from the previous day [3] - Market information: The average price of common peanuts in the national market is 4.19 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin. Different regions have different price ranges. Oil mills' contract procurement prices for common and oil - used peanuts have limited arrivals. Rain in Henan affects new - peanut supply, while supply in the Northeast is increasing, but price increase lacks demand support, and some processing plants are closed [4] Group 5: Figures and Data Sources - Figures include those related to soybean and peanut futures prices, spot prices, basis, spreads, production, consumption, inventory, import volume, planting profit, and planting cost [7] - Data sources mainly include Flush, Steel Union Data, and the National Bureau of Statistics, as well as the Huatai Futures Research Institute [9][11][29]