农产品日报：国内供应仍显宽松，豆粕偏弱震荡-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [3][6] 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the US government shutdown, the US soybean and domestic soybean meal markets lack clear data guidance and are mainly oscillating. Domestically, the supply of downstream soybeans remains abundant, with continuous arrivals of imported soybeans and high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is progressing smoothly. Policy changes need to be closely monitored [2] - For corn, new corn is starting to be listed in parts of Northeast China. Although the opening price is slightly higher than last year, the overall corn production has increased this year, and the purchase price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation after the new grain is listed [4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data for Soybean Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 2902 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (-1.02%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2348 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton (-1.84%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 2980 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu and Guangdong, it was 2890 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2560 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [1] - Market News: Brazil exported 216.6 million tons of soybeans in the first two weeks of October, with a daily average export of 27.1 million tons, a 26% increase from the daily average in October last year. As of October 9, the sowing progress of the 2025/26 soybean season reached 14% [1] 3.2 Market Analysis for Soybean Meal - The US government shutdown has led to a lack of data updates, and the market is oscillating. Domestically, the supply of soybeans is sufficient, with high oil - mill operating rates. The US soybean harvest is accelerating, and the new - season soybean sowing in Brazil is going well. Policy changes need to be monitored [2] 3.3 Strategy for Soybean Meal - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.4 Market News and Important Data for Corn - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2093 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (+0.05%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2385 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.67%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton [3] - Market News: Brazil exported 260.8 million tons of corn in the first two weeks of October, with a daily average export of 32.6 million tons, a 12% increase from the daily average in October last year [3] 3.5 Market Analysis for Corn - New corn is starting to be listed in Northeast China. The opening price is slightly higher than last year, but the overall production has increased, and the purchase price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the selling enthusiasm of farmers and the acquisition situation [4][5] 3.6 Strategy for Corn - Cautiously bearish [6]