国泰海通晨报-20251015

Fixed Income Research - The report highlights that the U.S. government shutdown and tariff threats have heightened global risk aversion, leading to a reassessment of sovereign credit risks and an increase in default expectations. It recommends allocating to long-term developed country bonds and emerging market sovereign debt while reducing high-yield credit exposure [1][4]. - The report notes that global government bond yields have declined across the board, with the U.S. 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields falling by 6.2 and 7 basis points, respectively. The TED spread has narrowed to -0.048%, indicating improved interbank liquidity [2][35]. - The offshore RMB sovereign bond yields have increased, with the 10-year yield rising by 5.18 basis points to 1.9109%. The report attributes the widening yield spread to various factors, including the Hong Kong Monetary Authority's offshore repo enhancements and the divergence between U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut expectations and domestic easing policies [3][36]. Industry Reports Construction Industry - The report indicates that the issuance of special bonds for local governments has decreased significantly, with no new bonds issued in the 41st week of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline in financing [7][8]. - The construction industry PMI for September 2025 is reported at 49.3%, showing a slight increase, while the new orders PMI is at 42.2%, indicating ongoing challenges in the sector [10]. Real Estate Industry - The report discusses a significant decline in new and second-hand housing transaction volumes in major cities, with new home sales down 55.7% week-on-week and 47.5% year-on-year [8]. - It highlights that the planned land acquisition amount has exceeded 610 billion RMB, with a notable decrease in the scale of new land acquisitions in the third quarter of 2025 [16][18]. Coal Industry - The report states that the price of thermal coal has stabilized, with the average price remaining at 713 RMB/ton. Inventory levels have increased, with Qinhuangdao's inventory rising by 11.3% [19][20]. - It also notes fluctuations in coking coal prices, with some prices increasing while others have decreased, reflecting a mixed market response [20][21]. Company Reports Baolong Chuangyuan - The report indicates that Baolong Chuangyuan has achieved a revenue of 969 million RMB in the first three quarters of 2025, representing an 18.1% year-on-year increase, with net profit rising by 44.9% [22][24]. - The company is expected to benefit from an optimized product structure, leading to improved gross margins and accelerated profit growth [23][25]. Xinhua Insurance - The report projects that Xinhua Insurance will see a significant increase in net profit for the first three quarters of 2025, with estimates ranging from 299.86 billion to 341.22 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 45% to 65% [26][27]. - The company is expected to benefit from improved investment returns and an optimized asset allocation structure, with a projected net profit growth rate of 52.8% [28].