上市银行2025年三季报：营收利润增速维持正增，稳健性持续

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [2] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that bank stocks have transitioned from a "pro-cyclical" to a "weak cycle" phase, emphasizing the sector's stability and sustainability. It recommends focusing on city and rural commercial banks that exhibit growth potential and low valuations [2][4] - It is expected that the industry's revenue and profit growth will maintain positive growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with net interest income's decline narrowing and fee income showing marginal improvement [2][4] - Asset quality remains stable, with continued optimization in corporate lending and a slowdown in retail non-performing loan exposure [2][4] Summary by Sections 1. Scale - The growth rate of total assets has stabilized, with credit growth showing regional differentiation, particularly in Sichuan (11.2%), Jiangsu (9.4%), Zhejiang (8.7%), and Shandong (8.6%) [11][7] 2. Net Interest Margin - The net interest margin is expected to stabilize in Q3, with a potential increase of 0.7 basis points in Q3 and 0.3 basis points in Q4, supported by reduced asset repricing pressure and a greater decline in deposit rates compared to LPR [12][13] 3. Asset Quality Trends - Corporate asset quality is improving, while retail exposure is expected to slow down. The non-performing loan ratio for retail loans is projected at 1.27% for 1H25, reflecting a stable increase compared to the end of 2024 [14][14] 4. Revenue and Profit Estimates - Revenue growth is projected to be slightly down, with net interest income expected to decline by 0.6% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025. The growth rate for fees is anticipated to recover to approximately 3.7% year-on-year in Q3 [23][24] - The overall profit for the industry is expected to maintain positive growth, with a projected net profit increase of around 1.1% for Q3 2025, particularly driven by city commercial banks [28][29]