首席点评：美联储或将结束缩表

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The Fed may end its balance - sheet reduction, and there is a high probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut later this month [1][5][12]. - Gold is becoming an increasingly important ultimate safe - asset due to factors such as the US government shutdown, rising fiscal deficits, and global confrontation, but there may be adjustments after a rapid rise [2][19]. - The copper market is affected by factors like tight concentrate supply, high smelting output, and downstream demand. The Indonesia mine accident may lead to a supply - demand gap and support copper prices in the long term [2][20]. - The short - term trend of oil prices is downward, although global oil demand is expected to increase [3][13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Main News - International News: Fed Chairman Powell hinted that the Fed may stop shrinking its balance sheet in the next few months and is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points later this month. The labor market shows signs of weakness, and inflation and employment prospects have changed little since September [1][5]. - Domestic News: Premier Li Qiang emphasized the importance of the next - step economic work, including implementing counter - cyclical adjustments, expanding domestic demand, and supporting foreign trade and investment [6]. - Industry News: The 138th Canton Fair kicked off, and China's goods trade in Q3 showed a 6% year - on - year increase, indicating the resilience of China's foreign trade [7]. 3.2 Outer - market Daily Returns - On October 14, the S&P 500, European STOXX 50, and other indices showed different degrees of decline, while ICE 11 - sugar and other varieties showed increases [8]. 3.3 Morning Comments on Major Varieties - Financial Products - Stock Index: After a high - level shock in September, the stock index is likely to maintain an upward trend in the long - term. However, short - term market fluctuations may increase due to Sino - US trade issues. The market style may shift to value in Q4 [10][11]. - Treasury Bonds: Treasury bonds continued to rise. The Fed's expected interest rate cut provides more room for China's monetary policy. With the weak domestic demand, the central bank is likely to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports the price of treasury bond futures [12]. - Energy and Chemical Products - Crude Oil: SC crude oil fell 1.73% at night. A cease - fire agreement in Gaza was signed, and short - term oil prices tend to break downward, although global oil demand is expected to increase [3][13]. - Methanol: Methanol is short - term bullish. The operating rate of coal - to - olefin plants and methanol plants has increased, and coastal inventories are rising [14]. - Rubber: Rubber prices are expected to be weak due to smooth supply and limited demand. Weather in rubber - producing areas may affect production [15][16]. - Polyolefins: Polyolefin futures mainly declined. The market focuses on demand and potential industrial policies in Q4, and prices are affected by cost fluctuations [17]. - Glass and Soda Ash: Glass futures remained weak, and soda ash futures closed up. The market is cautious, and attention should be paid to consumption and policy changes [18]. - Metals - Precious Metals: Gold and silver prices fluctuated sharply at high levels. Gold is favored as a safe - asset due to various factors, but there may be adjustments [2][19]. - Copper: Copper prices rose 0.57% at night. The concentrate supply is tight, and the Indonesia mine accident may support copper prices in the long - term [2][20]. - Zinc: Zinc prices fell 0.74% at night. The smelting output is expected to increase, and zinc prices may follow copper prices in the short - term [21]. - Lithium Carbonate: The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is supported, and the recent fluctuation is small [23]. - Black Products - Coking Coal and Coke: The short - term fluctuation of coking coal and coke futures may intensify due to factors such as high steel production and Sino - US trade friction [24]. - Iron Ore: Iron ore demand is supported by high steel production. With a decrease in global iron ore shipments and rapid port inventory depletion, the market is expected to be bullish [25]. - Steel: The supply pressure of steel is increasing, and the inventory is accumulating. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, with hot - rolled coils performing better than rebar [26]. - Agricultural Products - Protein Meal: The price of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends at night. The market is waiting for the USDA report, and the domestic supply is sufficient [27]. - Oils and Fats: Oils and fats were weak at night. The MPOB report showed an increase in palm oil inventory, and short - term prices may be under pressure, but long - term demand is supported [29]. - Sugar: International sugar is in a stock - building stage, and domestic sugar prices are expected to be weak due to supply pressure [30]. - Cotton: Cotton prices are expected to be weak in the short - term due to factors such as new cotton supply and weak downstream demand [31]. - Shipping Index - Container Shipping to Europe: The EC index rebounded in the afternoon. Maersk's price - stabilizing signal is positive, and the 12 - contract is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [32].