IEA月报预测明年油市面临大幅过剩-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, with a medium - term short - position allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The IEA monthly report predicts that the oil market will face a significant surplus next year, and the supply - surplus situation will be more severe than previously expected. The market's pessimistic sentiment is aggravated, and there is no sign of a rebound in the short term [1][2] - The hardening of stances between China and the US before the summit and the resurgence of concerns about the trade war, along with the IEA's bearish view, have put pressure on the fundamentals [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - New York Mercantile Exchange's November - delivery light crude oil futures fell 79 cents to $58.70 per barrel, a 1.33% decline; December - delivery London Brent crude oil futures dropped 93 cents to $62.39 per barrel, a 1.47% decline. SC crude oil's main contract closed down 1.73% at 444 yuan per barrel [1] - Russia's seaborne crude oil exports reached a 28 - month high in the past four weeks. As of October 12, the four - week average of crude oil exports from Russian ports was 3.74 million barrels per day, the highest since June 2023. Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian refineries have increased, with at least 28 attacks since early August [1] - The IEA monthly report shows that global oil inventories are set to rise, and the supply - surplus situation in the oil market will be more severe. Global oil supply is expected to grow by 3 million barrels per day this year and 2.4 million barrels per day next year, higher than previous forecasts. Global oil demand is expected to grow by only 710,000 barrels per day this year and 699,000 barrels per day next year [1] - Kazakhstan produced 75.7 million barrels of oil from January to September [1] Investment Logic - The hardening of stances between China and the US before the summit and the IEA's bearish view on the oil market have led to a combination of macro and fundamental factors putting pressure on the fundamentals, with no short - term rebound drivers [2] Strategy - The oil price is expected to be volatile and weak, and a medium - term short - position allocation is recommended [3] Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russian oil and macro black - swan events - Upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russian oil and large - scale supply disruptions due to Middle East conflicts [3]