农产品日报：郑糖跟随外盘下跌，棉价走势依旧趋弱-20251015

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: Neutral to bearish [3] - Sugar: Neutral [6] - Pulp: Neutral [9] Core Views - Cotton: The new - year global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose, with increased short - term supply pressure and demand - side pressure. Domestically, the cotton de - stocking speed is fast, but the purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space of cotton prices [2] - Sugar: Brazilian sugar supply is strong in the short term, suppressing the raw sugar futures price. In China, the typhoon has affected sugarcane production, adding uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, and the macro - sentiment may increase market volatility [5][6] - Pulp: The global pulp supply is under pressure, and the domestic supply pattern is still loose. The weak demand, especially in China, is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2601 contract was 13,265 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton (- 0.26%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,598 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan/ton; the national average price was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton [1] - Market Info: Pakistan's cotton harvest is accelerating, with an expected total output of 930,000 - 1,008,000 tons, and the new cottonseed price is falling [1] Market Analysis - Macro: The Sino - US trade war has escalated, and the US federal government shutdown has affected data release. The global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to be loose [2] - Domestic: Cotton de - stocking is fast, but the ginneries' purchase is cautious. The new cotton purchase price has stabilized, limiting the downward space [2] Strategy - Neutral to bearish. The escalation of the Sino - US trade war and the new - year production increase expectation suppress the cotton price, and the demand support is insufficient [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2601 contract was 5397 yuan/ton, down 73 yuan/ton (- 1.33%) from the previous day [4] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5780 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton [4] - Market Info: Brazil exported 1.8014 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of October, a 9.45% increase from last year [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: The sugar production in Brazil increased significantly in the first half of September, suppressing the raw sugar price, but there is support from the ethanol price [5] - Zheng sugar: The domestic peak - season sales are poor, and the supply is sufficient in the short term. The typhoon has affected sugarcane production in some areas [5][6] Strategy - Neutral. The typhoon - affected sugarcane production adds uncertainty to the new - season sugar output, but the macro - sentiment may increase market volatility [6] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2511 contract was 4846 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+ 0.08%) from the previous day [7] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5590 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4955 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [7] - Market Info: The import wood pulp spot price was mostly stable, with some increases [7] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas pulp mills announced price increases, production cuts, and conversion plans, but the actual transactions were poor in September. The domestic port inventory is high, and the supply pattern is still loose [8] - Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the US is weak, and the domestic demand is the core factor suppressing pulp prices. The downstream paper mills' procurement is cautious [8] Strategy - Neutral. The macro - situation is bearish, and the pulp fundamentals are not improving. The pulp price is expected to continue to oscillate at the bottom [9]