聚丙烯日报：成本端坍塌继续拖累丙烯盘面下行-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The cost side collapse continues to drag down the propylene futures market. Although the spot price has slightly rebounded due to upstream price - cuts for sales and increased downstream purchasing at low prices, the futures price is still under pressure. The supply side has high pressure despite more maintenance, the demand side has limited improvement, and the cost side is weak due to the decline of international oil prices and propane prices. However, attention should be paid to the impact of the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions on propane supply [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Market News and Important Data - Propylene Prices and Basis: The closing price of the propylene main contract is 6084 yuan/ton (-93), the spot price in East China is 6215 yuan/ton (+30), and in North China is 6280 yuan/ton (+70). The basis in East China is 131 yuan/ton (+123), and in North China is 196 yuan/ton (+163) [1]. - Propylene Production and Related Indicators: The propylene operating rate is 75% (-1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 208 US dollars/ton (+5), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 131 US dollars/ton (+24), the import profit is - 423 yuan/ton (-71), and the in - plant inventory is 43390 tons (-1520) [1]. - Propylene Downstream: The operating rates and production profits of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone have changed. For example, the PP powder operating rate is 40% (+2.29%), and the production profit is - 110 yuan/ton (-125) [1]. II. Market Analysis - Supply Side: During the festival, some PDH units such as Lihuayi Weiyuan and Hebei Haiwei stopped for maintenance, and some units have maintenance plans. However, the supply has increased after the resumption of production of some major factories in Shandong before the festival, and the supply pressure is still high [2]. - Demand Side: Propylene has fallen to a phased low, and downstream buyers have started to purchase at low prices, improving the trading atmosphere. However, the demand for PP and propylene oxide is still weak [2]. - Cost Side: International oil prices are under pressure due to weak demand and tariff disturbances, and the price of propane in the external market has also dropped significantly, which has dragged down the propylene futures market. Attention should be paid to the impact of Sino - US trade frictions on propane supply [2]. III. Strategy - Single - sided: Cautiously short - sell for hedging [3]. - Inter - period: Go for a reverse spread when PL01 - 02 is high [3]. - Inter - variety: No strategy provided [3]. IV. Catalog - based Chart Information - Propylene Basis Structure: Includes charts of the closing price of the propylene main contract, East China basis, North China basis, etc. [6][9][11] - Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate: Involves charts of the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene operating rate, PDH production gross profit, etc. [15][23][25] - Propylene Import and Export Profit: Contains charts of the price differences between South Korea FOB - China CFR, Japan CFR - China CFR, and propylene import profit [33][35] - Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate: Covers charts of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, etc. [39][41][44] - Propylene Inventory: Includes charts of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [64]