化工日报：中美博弈延续，聚酯产业链弱势-20251015

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The polyester industry chain is weak due to the continuation of the China - US game. The supply - demand imbalance is prominent, and the market is affected by factors such as crude oil price fluctuations, production capacity changes, and demand trends [2][3][5]. - For the strategy, it is recommended to cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging, long PF processing fees at low levels, and conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Data - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean Co., Ltd. on October 14, 2025, in response to the US 301 investigation on China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries [1]. Market Analysis - Cost Side: During the China - US trade war, the leaders of both sides will meet around the end of the month. After the National Day, China's import demand slowed down while US exports increased, and Middle - East exports also rose, leading to an oversupply situation. Crude oil prices dropped sharply due to the renewed tariff war threat from the US, but there were some signs of easing later [2]. - PX: China's PX load has recovered to a relatively high level. With the restart of overseas units, the overall PX operation rate has increased. The postponement of PX maintenance plans in the fourth quarter and capacity expansion of some units have weakened the PX supply - demand outlook in the fourth quarter [2][5]. - TA: The PTA spot processing fee has been repaired but is still suppressed. The inventory accumulation rate has narrowed in October - November due to more maintenance plans and postponed new - unit launches, but there is significant inventory accumulation pressure in December [3][5]. - Demand: The polyester operating rate is 91.5% (unchanged from the previous period). The demand for filament yarn improved before the National Day, but the increase in polyester load is limited, and the sustainability of demand improvement needs attention [3]. - PF: The spot production profit is 300 yuan/ton (up 36 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of direct - spun polyester staple fiber has decreased to a low level, and the short - term supply - demand situation is better than that of raw materials [4]. - PR: The spot processing fee of polyester bottle - grade chips is 509 yuan/ton (up 1 yuan/ton from the previous period). The inventory of domestic polyester bottle - grade chip factories has increased, and the supply - demand pressure is large under the pressure of new - unit launches [4]. Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously short - sell PX/PTA/PF/PR on rallies for hedging [5]. - Cross - Variety: Long PF processing fees at low levels: PF2511 - 0.855PTA2601 - 0.332MEG2601 [6]. - Cross - Period: Conduct reverse spreads on PX/PTA2601 - 2605 [6]. Graphical Data - Price and Basis: Includes TA and PX contract price trends, basis, and cross - period spreads [10][11]. - Upstream Profits and Spreads: Covers PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, and South Korean xylene isomerization and disproportionation profits [17][20]. - International Spreads and Import - Export Profits: Involves toluene spreads between the US and Asia, toluene - naphtha spreads, and PTA export profits [25][27]. - Upstream PX and PTA Operation: Shows the operating rates of PX and PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan [28][31][33]. - Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: Presents the social inventory and warehouse receipts of PTA and PX [36][39][40]. - Downstream Polyester Load: Covers the production and sales of filament and staple fiber, polyester load, and the inventory days of filament factories [48][50][59]. - PF Detailed Data: Includes the load, inventory, and profit - related data of polyester staple fiber [68][74][80]. - PR Fundamental Detailed Data: Involves the load, inventory, and processing fees of polyester bottle - grade chips [90][96][98].