新能源及有色金属日报：绝对价格回落，海内外升贴水走强-20251015

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - Investment rating for aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Investment rating for alumina: Neutral [9] - Investment rating for aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Group 2: Core Views - The escalation of the Sino - US tariff trade war has led to a decline in the absolute price of SHFE aluminum, increasing downstream purchasing enthusiasm, narrowing the spot discount, and rising overseas premiums. The tariff increase has little impact on the aluminum supply - demand fundamentals, with China's aluminum exports rising in September. Overseas macro - positive factors remain, and domestic consumption is steadily recovering [6]. - The domestic and overseas alumina spot markets have not improved, with stable supply and ongoing cost - side games. The supply of domestic ore in the north is tight, and there is production reduction in Shanxi. The alumina fundamentals show no signs of improvement, but the price is undervalued, and risks increase as the Guinea referendum approaches [7][8]. Group 3: Key Data Summaries Aluminum - Spot prices: On October 14, 2025, the price of East China A00 aluminum was 20,900 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the price of Central Plains A00 aluminum was 20,840 yuan/ton; the price of Foshan A00 aluminum was 20,820 yuan/ton, with a change of 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. - Futures prices: The main SHFE aluminum contract opened at 20,885 yuan/ton and closed at 20,860 yuan/ton on October 14, 2025, with no change from the previous trading day. The highest price was 21,035 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,845 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 126,426 lots, and the open interest was 159,179 lots [2]. - Inventory: As of October 14, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 650,000 tons, with a change of 0.1 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 63,176 tons, with a change of 25 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 503,950 tons, with a change of - 2,050 tons from the previous trading day [2]. Alumina - Spot prices: On October 14, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,905 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,870 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,930 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,120 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,115 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 323 US dollars/ton [2]. - Futures prices: The main alumina contract opened at 2,817 yuan/ton and closed at 2,805 yuan/ton on October 14, 2025, with a change of - 20 yuan/ton (- 0.71%) from the previous trading day's closing price. The highest price was 2,829 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 2,791 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 233,289 lots, and the open interest was 356,373 lots [2]. Aluminum Alloy - Prices: On October 14, 2025, the procurement price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 16,400 yuan/ton, and the procurement price of mechanical raw aluminum was 16,600 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 75,700 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 61,500 tons [4]. - Cost and profit: The theoretical total cost was 20,520 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 180 yuan/ton [5]. Group 4: Strategies - Unilateral strategy: Bullish on aluminum with caution, neutral on alumina, and bullish on aluminum alloy with caution [9]. - Arbitrage strategy: Long - short spread trading on SHFE aluminum [9]