20251015申万期货有色金属基差日报：可能偏强铜：锌：跟随铜价走势-20251015

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output continues to grow. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, which will support copper prices in the long - term. Market sentiment has gradually stabilized after the Sino - US trade confrontation [2]. - Zinc prices will follow the trend of copper prices. Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue to rise. Due to different inventory situations at home and abroad, domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones [2]. Summary by Variety Copper - Price Movement: The copper price closed up 0.57% overnight [2]. - Supply - demand Factors: The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, but smelting output continues to grow. Grid investment shows positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap [2]. - Suggestion: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Zinc - Price Movement: The zinc price closed down 0.74% overnight [2]. - Supply - demand Factors: Short - term zinc concentrate processing fees have generally increased, and smelting profits have turned positive, with smelting output expected to continue to rise. Galvanized sheet inventories have increased weekly. Infrastructure investment growth has slowed down, automobile production and sales are growing, home appliance production schedules are in negative growth, and the real estate market remains weak. Domestic zinc prices may be weaker than foreign ones due to different inventory situations at home and abroad [2]. - Suggestion: Pay attention to changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (USD/ton) | LME Spot Premium (CASH - 3M, USD/ton) | LME Inventory (ton) | LME Inventory Daily Change (ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 84,400 | 20 | 10,599 | 54.87 | 139,350 | - 50 | | Aluminum | 20,840 | 0 | 2,740 | 10.22 | 506,000 | - 2,825 | | Zinc | 22,200 | - 85 | 2,954 | 87.22 | 37,475 | - 475 | | Nickel | 120,490 | - 1,640 | 15,105 | - 208.69 | 242,094 | 4,716 | | Lead | 17,050 | - 200 | 1,978 | - 44.48 | 237,000 | 0 | | Tin | 280,000 | 940 | 35,290 | - 113.00 | 2,385 | - 25 | [2]