Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of oils and fats remains stable, and prices continue to fluctuate. The impact of Sino - US trade frictions needs to be monitored in the later stage [1][3] Group 3: Summary of Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract yesterday was 9330.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 34 yuan and a decline of - 0.36%. The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8240.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 28.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.34%. The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9959.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 63.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.63% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9270.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 50.00 yuan and an increase of + 0.54%. The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8440.00 yuan/ton, with a change of + 10.00 yuan/ton and an increase of + 0.12%. The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 10260.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 60.00 yuan and a decline of - 0.58% [1] Spot Basis - The spot basis of palm oil in Guangdong was P01 + - 60.00, with a change of + 84.00 yuan. The spot basis of soybean oil in Tianjin was Y01 + 200.00, with a change of + 38.00 yuan. The spot basis of rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was OI01 + 301.00, with a change of + 3.00 yuan [1] Group 4: Summary of Recent Market Information US Soybean Export Inspection - As of the week ending October 9, 2025, the US soybean export inspection volume was 994008 tons, compared with 783495 tons in the previous week. The cumulative export inspection volume of US soybeans this crop year (starting from September 1) was 4040284 tons, compared with 5463369 tons in the same period of the previous year [2] Brazilian Soybean Production and Export Forecast - CONAB predicts that the Brazilian soybean production in the 2025/26 season will reach 177.64 million tons, an increase of about 6 million tons year - on - year. The soybean planting area is expected to increase by 3.6% to 49.07 million hectares. The soybean export volume is expected to increase to 112.11 million tons, while the US soybean export volume is expected to decline [2] Brazilian Crop Planting Progress - In Brazil, the soybean planting progress in Paraná state is the fastest, with a sowing rate of 31%, followed by Mato Grosso state with a planting rate of 18.9%. Most regions are waiting for rainfall, which is expected to resume in the second half of October [2] Brazilian October Export Forecast - ANEC expects Brazil's soybean export volume in October to be 7.31 million tons, the soybean meal export volume to be 2.06 million tons, and the corn export volume to be 6.46 million tons, all higher than last week's expectations [2]
油脂日报：油脂供需稳定，价格延续震荡-20251015
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-10-15 05:32