化工日报：高库存继续拖累苯乙烯走弱-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The Sino-US trade conflict has dragged down the chemical sector as a whole. For pure benzene, the port de-stocking rate has slowed down, indicating that downstream procurement has not continued after the holiday. The recovery rate of CPL and aniline operations may be limited, and there is still inventory pressure on PA6 & nylon filament and MDI. The concentrated maintenance of styrene in late October has dragged down the demand for pure benzene. For styrene, port inventory pressure persists, downstream pick-up performance remains average, and port basis has weakened slightly. EPS seasonal low operating rate awaits recovery, PS operating rate continues to decline, and the pressure on PS finished product inventory has increased after the holiday. ABS operating rate has rebounded from a low level, but inventory pressure has further increased. Supply is affected by ongoing maintenance of some plants and new device launches, and overseas demand remains weak, increasing the import pressure on China [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene main contract basis is 33 yuan/ton (-5), and the spot - M2 spread is 40 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton). EB main contract basis is 41 yuan/ton (+26 yuan/ton) [1]. II. Production Profits and Internal - External Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene CFR China processing fee is 136 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), FOB Korea processing fee is 123 dollars/ton (+7 dollars/ton), and the US - Korea spread is 75.5 dollars/ton (+3.0 dollars/ton). Styrene non - integrated production profit is - 546 yuan/ton (-47 yuan/ton) and is expected to gradually compress [1]. III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Pure benzene port inventory is 9.00 tons (-0.10 tons), and the operating rate is not mentioned. Styrene East China port inventory is 196,500 tons (-5,400 tons), East China commercial inventory is 121,500 tons (+5,100 tons), and the operating rate is 73.6% (+2.4%) [1]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - EPS production profit is 331 yuan/ton (+119 yuan/ton), operating rate is 40.74% (-2.37%); PS production profit is - 119 yuan/ton (+69 yuan/ton), operating rate is 54.60% (-1.70%); ABS production profit is - 15 yuan/ton (-24 yuan/ton), operating rate is 72.50% (+1.50%) [2]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Caprolactam production profit is - 1830 yuan/ton (+90), operating rate is 96.00% (+0.00%); Phenol - acetone production profit is - 526 yuan/ton (+92), operating rate is 78.00% (-1.00%); Aniline production profit is 478 yuan/ton (+140), operating rate is 77.16% (+1.12%); Adipic acid production profit is - 1292 yuan/ton (+81), operating rate is 66.90% (+4.00%) [1]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - hedge BZ and EB on rallies. - Basis and Inter - Period: Do reverse spreads on the EB2511 - EB2512 spread on rallies. - Cross - Variety: No strategy [4].