贵金属日报：鲍威尔发言温和偏鸽，贵金属宽松逻辑获加强-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Cautiously bullish [8] - Silver: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9] Core Viewpoints - Powell's speech was moderately dovish, strengthening the easing logic for precious metals. Gold and silver prices are expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern [1][8][9] - The IMF predicts that the world economy will grow by 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026, with a slight upward adjustment to the US economic growth forecast and no change to China's forecast [1] Market Analysis - Fed Chair Powell stated that the outlook for employment and inflation has changed little since September, and the Fed will adjust monetary policy based on the economic outlook and risk balance. He also mentioned that the balance sheet reduction may end in the next few months [1] - The IMF released the latest World Economic Outlook Report, predicting global economic growth and adjusting the economic growth forecasts of the US and China [1] Futures Quotes and Trading Volumes - On October 14, 2025, the Shanghai Gold main contract opened at 929.50 yuan/gram and closed at 938.98 yuan/gram, up 1.23% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. The night session closed at 949.76 yuan/gram, up 1.15% from the afternoon session [2] - On the same day, the Shanghai Silver main contract opened at 11,582.00 yuan/kilogram and closed at 11,533.00 yuan/kilogram, up 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 2,421,975 lots, and the open interest was 467,690 lots. The night session closed at 11,732 yuan/kilogram, up 1.73% from the afternoon session [2] US Treasury Yield and Spread Monitoring - On October 14, 2025, the US 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.030%, up 0.19 BP from the previous trading day. The 10-year to 2-year spread was 0.547%, up 0.81 BP from the previous trading day [3] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volume Changes - On October 14, 2025, on the Au2508 contract, the long positions decreased by 1,323 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,189 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Gold contract was 778,989 lots, up 25.86% from the previous trading day [4] - On the Ag2508 contract, the long positions increased by 2 lots, and the short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of the Shanghai Silver contract was 3,694,421 lots, up 30.84% from the previous trading day [4] Precious Metal ETF Position Tracking - The gold ETF holdings were 1,018.88 tons, an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,733.09 tons, a decrease of 21.2 tons from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal Arbitrage Tracking - On October 14, 2025, the domestic gold premium was -20.11 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was -1,446.43 yuan/kilogram [6] - The ratio of the SHFE gold and silver main contract prices was approximately 81.42, up 1.21% from the previous trading day. The overseas gold-silver ratio was 79.45, down 3.10% from the previous trading day [6] Fundamental Analysis - On October 14, 2025, the trading volume of Shanghai Gold Exchange T+d gold was 94,894 kilograms, up 48.90% from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 1,249,250 kilograms, down 20.61% from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 11,970 kilograms, and the silver delivery volume was 330 kilograms [7] Strategy - Gold: The price is expected to be mainly in a volatile and bullish pattern, with the Au2512 contract oscillating between 930 yuan/gram and 960 yuan/gram [8] - Silver: The price is also expected to maintain a volatile and bullish pattern, with the Ag2512 contract oscillating between 11,400 yuan/kilogram and 12,000 yuan/kilogram [9] - Arbitrage: Short the gold-silver ratio at high levels [9] - Options: On hold [9]