甲醇日报：关注伊朗制裁的进展-20251015

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The port was supported as the willingness of port warehousing enterprises to receive Iranian cargoes decreased due to the intensification of Sino - US trade conflicts and the sanctions on Iranian - related transport vessels last week. However, on October 13, Trump expressed the intention to restart negotiations with Iran, which might lead to a relaxation of sanctions [2]. - The coal - based methanol operating rate in the inland area rebounded again, and the inland inventory increased from a low level, weakening the support for the port. The operating rates of traditional downstream industries such as acetic acid, MTBE, and formaldehyde all declined to varying degrees [2]. 3. Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis, including methanol Taicang basis and methanol main contract, methanol basis in different regions (Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, Henan, Hebei, Guangdong) compared with the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [6][10][21]. II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, and Import Profit - Figures show the Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit (PP&EG type), Taicang methanol - CFR China import price difference (excluding additional points), and price differences between CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, FOB US Gulf - CFR China, FOB Rotterdam - CFR China [25][34]. III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Information on methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate (including integrated), inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated) is provided [35][43]. IV. Regional Price Differences - The report includes figures on regional price differences such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, Lunan - Taicang - 100, Guangdong - East China - 180, East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 [39][49]. V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Figures show the production gross profits of Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [50][54]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Wait and see [3]. - Inter - period: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the price is low [3]. - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the price is high [3].