Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, recommended to buy on dips; hold a wait-and-see attitude towards treasury bonds [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Ranged trading for coking coal and rebar; recommended to wait and see for glass [1][8][9] - Non-ferrous Metals: Recommended to hold long positions on copper on dips; consider low-level long positions on aluminum; wait and see or short on rallies for nickel; ranged trading for tin; buy on dips for gold; ranged trading for silver [1][11][19] - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate; short strategy for soda ash 01 contract [1][21][33] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook; PTA is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation; apples and jujubes are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][34][36] - Agricultural and Livestock: Short on rallies for pigs and eggs; corn is expected to have a wide-range fluctuation; soybean meal is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation; oils are expected to fluctuate stronger [1][40][48] Core Viewpoints - The stock index market may have wide-range fluctuations in the future due to the change in the macro environment and the impact on the technology sector; the bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] - The black building materials market is affected by factors such as rainfall, demand, and tariffs, with prices showing different trends; the non-ferrous metals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro factors, with copper and gold prices expected to be supported [11][19] - The energy chemicals market is affected by supply, demand, and macro policies, with PVC and soda ash facing certain pressure; the cotton textile industry chain is affected by supply and demand and Sino-US relations, with cotton and PTA showing different trends [22][34] - The agricultural and livestock market is affected by supply, demand, and policies, with pigs and eggs facing supply pressure and oils expected to have limited callbacks [40][52] Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Stock Indices: The market is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the long term. It is recommended to buy on dips. The market turnover has increased, and the technology sector has been affected by the macro environment [5] - Treasury Bonds: It is recommended to hold a wait-and-see attitude. The bond market may continue to fluctuate due to geopolitical and trade issues [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The market is expected to fluctuate. The pithead price shows a differentiated trend, and the demand for early heating provides potential support [8] - Rebar: The market is expected to fluctuate. The price has fallen, and the static valuation is low. It is recommended to pay attention to the buying opportunity around 3000 for RB2601 [8] - Glass: It is recommended to wait and see. The supply has increased slightly, the inventory has risen, and the market is affected by policies and supply news [9][10] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The market is expected to maintain a high-level strong trend. The supply is affected by accidents, and the demand has room for improvement in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to hold long positions on dips [11] - Aluminum: The market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The supply is stable, the demand is in the peak season, and it is recommended to consider low-level long positions [13] - Nickel: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply may be loose, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18] - Tin: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is tight, the demand is warming up, and it is recommended to conduct ranged trading [18] - Gold and Silver: The market is expected to fluctuate. The prices are supported by the expectation of interest rate cuts and risk aversion. It is recommended to trade cautiously after price corrections [19] Energy Chemicals - PVC: The market is expected to fluctuate weakly. The supply is high, the demand is weak, and the inventory is high. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at 4800 for 01 [22] - Caustic Soda: The market is expected to fluctuate. The supply is high, the demand is increasing, and it is recommended to pay attention to the range of 2380 - 2530 for 01 [25] - Soda Ash: It is recommended to maintain a short strategy for the 01 contract. The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the price may decline [33] - Other Chemicals: The markets of styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate, and different factors affect their prices [22][26][28] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The market is expected to fluctuate with a bearish outlook. The supply and demand are adjusted, and the Sino-US relationship brings uncertainty [34] - PTA: The market is expected to have a narrow-range fluctuation. The cost support is insufficient, and the supply and demand are balanced [35][36] - Apples and Jujubes: The markets are expected to fluctuate stronger. The production and supply of apples are affected by the weather, and the supply of jujubes is affected by the harvest time [36][37] Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: The market is under pressure. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak in the short and long term. It is recommended to adjust short positions [40] - Eggs: The market is under pressure to rebound. The supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and it is recommended to adjust short positions and wait for the spot market [42] - Corn: The market is expected to have a range-bound fluctuation. The new crop is listed, and the supply and demand are balanced. It is recommended to short on rallies for the 11 contract [43] - Soybean Meal: The market is expected to have a low-level range-bound fluctuation. The supply and demand are balanced, and it is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2900 for M2601 [45] - Oils: The market is expected to have limited callbacks. The prices are affected by multiple factors, and it is recommended to buy after the callback [52]
期货市场交易指引2025年10月15日-20251015
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-10-15 05:40