中辉有色观点-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: ★★★, Buy and Hold [1] - Silver: ★★, Stabilize and Go Long [1] - Copper: ★★, Long - term Hold [1] - Zinc: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Lead: ★, Rebound Under Pressure [1] - Tin: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Aluminum: ★, Rebound Under Pressure [1] - Nickel: ★, Under Pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★, Rebound [1] - Polysilicon: ★★, Bullish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★, Wide - range Oscillation [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Short - term safe - haven sentiment is strong, and long - term strategic allocation value remains due to factors like interest - rate cuts, geopolitical reshaping, and central bank gold purchases [1] - Silver: Short - term volatility is large, but long - term demand is supported by global policy stimulus, with low inventory and high price sensitivity [1] - Copper: Despite short - term pressure, it is bullish in the long - term due to copper concentrate shortage and the explosion of green copper demand [1] - Zinc: Domestic demand is weak during the peak season, and it is expected to have increased supply and decreased demand in the long - term [1] - Lead: With the resumption of production of recycled lead smelters and the arrival of imported lead, and doubts about the peak - season consumption of downstream enterprises, the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Tin: Overseas disturbances are weakening, domestic smelters are under maintenance, and the peak - season demand remains to be observed, so the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Aluminum: The cost of alumina is falling, inventory is accumulating, and although there is some support from the terminal peak season, the price is under short - term pressure [1] - Nickel: Overseas disturbances are weakening, domestic supply is sufficient, inventory is accumulating, and downstream stainless steel is also piling up, so the price is falling under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Production is increasing, and demand from downstream industries provides support for the price [1] - Polysilicon: Supported by strong policy expectations, despite the contrast between strong expectations and weak reality [1] - Lithium Carbonate: The short - term supply - demand is balanced, with both increasing, and the continuous decline of warehouse receipts supports the price [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Gold prices are strong due to the deadlock in Sino - US relations, the US government shutdown, and uncertain situations in Japan and France [2] - Basic Logic: Sino - US relations are at a standstill, the US government is shut down, UK employment data is poor, and gold is expected to be in a long - term bull market due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - Strategy Recommendation: For domestic gold, maintain a long - position thinking both in the short and long - term. For silver, pay close attention to macro - sentiment and market rhythm, and consider layout on pullbacks. Long - term positions should be held continuously [4] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper is under pressure and consolidating at a high level [5][6] - Industrial Logic: Global copper mine supply is tight, domestic electrolytic copper production is expected to decline, downstream demand is affected by the high price, but green copper demand remains resilient [6] - Strategy Recommendation: Protect short - term long positions with moving stop - profits. In the long - term, be bullish on copper. Focus on the range of 82,500 - 86,500 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 10,000 - 11,000 US dollars/ton for London copper [7] Zinc - Market Review: Zinc prices are under pressure, and London zinc has fallen nearly 2% [8][9] - Industrial Logic: Domestic zinc concentrate supply is loose, production is expected to increase, demand from the real estate and infrastructure sectors is weak, and overseas inventory is at a low level [9] - Strategy Recommendation: Hold previous short positions cautiously, and consider selling hedging at high prices. In the long - term, it is a short - position allocation in the sector. Focus on the range of 21,800 - 22,400 yuan/ton for Shanghai zinc and 2,900 - 3,000 US dollars/ton for London zinc [10] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices are under pressure in the rebound, and alumina continues its weak trend [11][12] - Industrial Logic: There is still an expectation of interest - rate cuts overseas. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is high, inventory is accumulating, and downstream demand is stable. The alumina market is in an oversupply situation [13] - Strategy Recommendation: Buy Shanghai aluminum at low prices in the short - term, and pay attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises. The main operating range is 20,500 - 21,500 yuan/ton [14] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices are under pressure, and stainless steel continues its weak trend [15][16] - Industrial Logic: Overseas disturbances to nickel ore supply are weakening, domestic pure nickel inventory is accumulating, and the peak - season consumption of downstream stainless steel is uncertain [17] - Strategy Recommendation: Temporarily observe nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to the improvement of downstream consumption. The main operating range of nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 rises and then falls, with the late - session gain narrowing [19][20] - Industrial Logic: The supply of lithium carbonate from Chile to China has decreased, the domestic supply is increasing, overseas supply is expected to recover in November, demand from the lithium - battery and cathode sectors is strong, and social inventory is expected to continue to decline [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Mainly observe, and focus on the range of 72,600 - 73,500 yuan/ton for 2601 [22]