中辉期货豆粕日报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views of the Report - Short - term bearish: For soybean meal and rapeseed meal, soybean meal lacks bullish drivers due to US soybean harvest, Sino - US negotiation voices, and improved rainfall in Brazil; rapeseed meal has mixed factors and follows the trend of soybean meal [1]. - Short - term volatile: Palm oil and soybean oil. Palm oil has potential future demand increase but is pressured by inventory accumulation; soybean oil follows the palm oil market [1]. - High - level volatile: Rapeseed oil, with low mill operation rate, consumption season, and speculation on biodiesel in the palm oil market [1]. - Cautiously bearish: Cotton and jujube. Cotton has supply pressure and weak demand; jujube has post - harvest pressure and potential weather - related price fluctuations [1]. - Wide - range volatile: Live pigs, with strong short - term supply pressure and uncertain demand [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal - Price and Inventory: Futures price dropped to 2902 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 3020.57 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, national port soybean inventory was 1009.2 million tons, 125 oil mills' soybean inventory was 765.76 million tons, and bean meal inventory was 107.91 million tons [2][3]. - Market Situation: US old - crop soybean inventory was lower than expected, and Brazilian soybean planting rate was 8.2% as of Oct 4, 2025. It is in weak consolidation due to lack of bullish drivers [4]. Rapeseed Meal - Price and Inventory: Futures price dropped to 2348 yuan/ton, national average spot price was 2514.74 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, coastal oil mills' rapeseed inventory was 1.8 million tons, rapeseed meal inventory was 1.15 million tons [5][6]. - Market Situation: International market has expected increase in Canadian rapeseed production. Domestic market is in de - stocking but in seasonal demand off - season, and it follows the soybean meal trend [6]. Palm Oil - Price and Inventory: Futures price was 9330 yuan/ton, national average price was 9370 yuan/ton. As of Oct 10, 2025, commercial inventory was 54.76 million tons [7][9]. - Market Situation: Indonesia's bio - diesel policy is positive for future demand, but Malaysian palm oil inventory accumulation in September pressured prices, and it is in high - level volatility [9]. Cotton - Price and Inventory: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14755 yuan/ton. Commercial inventory increased to 115.54 million tons [10]. - Market Situation: Internationally, supply pressure is increasing as new cotton harvests in major countries. Domestically, new cotton harvest is advancing, prices are weak, and demand is sluggish [11][12][13]. Jujube - Price and Inventory: Futures prices of different contracts declined slightly, some spot prices remained stable. 36 sample enterprises' inventory was 9167 tons [14][15]. - Market Situation: New - season production is expected to decrease, but there is still pressure considering inventory. There may be price fluctuations before November [15]. Live Pigs - Price and Inventory: Futures prices of different contracts increased, national average spot price was 11270 yuan/ton. National sample enterprises' inventory increased to 3839.01 million tons [16]. - Market Situation: Short - term supply pressure is strong as October planned出栏量 increases. Long - term, the number of breeding sows is decreasing. Demand is uncertain after the holiday [17].