生鲜软商品板块日度策略报告-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the documents. 2. Core Views of the Report - Soft Commodity Sector: - Sugar: Macro risks and supply - side pressure led to a more than 3% drop in ICE raw sugar. Brazilian sugar production recovery and expected global output increase in the new season add to supply pressure. With weakening demand expectations, Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be weak in the short - term but has limited downside due to cost support [3]. - Pulp: Broad - leaf pulp prices are strong, but coniferous pulp is stable to weak. Global pulp supply remains high, and demand support from finished paper is weakening. Pulp is expected to stay at a low level in the short - term [4]. - Double - offset Paper: Although the peak season may support prices, high supply elasticity limits the upside potential, and it is expected to be weak in the medium - term [6][7]. - Cotton: Both international and domestic cotton markets are under pressure. The international market focuses on yield and economic expectations, while the domestic market is affected by new - season supply and trade relations. Cotton prices are expected to be weak [8]. - Fresh Fruit and Vegetable Sector: - Apple: New - season yield and quality uncertainties and mixed consumption support short - term prices [9]. - Jujube: The jujube futures price shows a weak - oscillation pattern. Fourth - quarter production and consumption changes affect its price. Investors are advised to adopt different strategies based on their risk tolerance [10][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Sector Strategy Recommendations - Fresh Fruit Futures: - Apple 2601: Adopt a bullish approach. New - season yield expectations and trading value provide support, with a support range of 7500 - 7600 and a pressure range of 9000 - 9200 [19]. - Jujube 2601: Consider shorting at high prices. Seasonal factors and market sentiment influence the strategy, with a support range of 10500 - 11000 and a pressure range of 11500 - 12000 [19]. - Soft Commodity Futures: - Sugar 2601: Hold short positions cautiously. The sharp drop in raw sugar affects Zhengzhou sugar, with a support range of 5272 - 5300 and a pressure range of 5477 - 5500 [19]. - Pulp 2511: Adopt a bearish approach in the range. High supply and weak domestic finished - paper prices limit upward movement, with a support range of 4700 - 4800 and a pressure range of 5100 - 5200 [19]. - Double - offset Paper 2601: Short on rebounds. The approaching peak season supports prices, but supply elasticity limits the upside, with a support range of 4100 - 4200 and a pressure range of 4400 - 4500 [19]. - Cotton 2601: Hold short positions cautiously. New - season supply and trade relations put pressure on prices, with a support range of 12800 - 13000 and a pressure range of 13600 - 13700 [19]. 3.2 Second Part: Market News Changes - Apple Market: - Fundamental Information: In August 2025, fresh apple exports were about 68,400 tons, up 27.59% month - on - month and down 17.57% year - on - year. As of September 25, national apple cold - storage inventory was 147,900 tons, down 60,200 tons week - on - week and 30,700 tons year - on - year [20]. - Spot Market: In Shandong, inventory apple prices are stable, and new - season late - maturing Fuji supply is delayed due to weather. In Shaanxi, red apples are scarce, and prices vary by quality. The market in sales areas is stable [20][21][22]. - Jujube Market: The inventory of 36 sample physical warehouses decreased slightly. Attention is paid to the circulation of old - season goods and price changes before the new - season harvest [23]. - Sugar Market: In the first half of September 2025, 61,000 tons of out - of - quota raw sugar arrived, and 460,000 tons were forecasted for September. On October 14, ICE raw sugar dropped 3.04%. Indian sugar exports in the 2024/25 season reached 775,000 tons. Sugar spot prices were lowered [25]. - Pulp Market: Chinese traders counter - offered imported NBSK at $650/ton, but sellers refused. A European supplier sold at a low price. Global pulp supply is high, and demand is weak [28]. - Double - offset Paper Market: Prices in different regions are stable. Supply is relatively loose, and demand shows no significant improvement [29][30]. - Cotton Market: As of the end of September, textile enterprises' in - stock and available cotton decreased. Egyptian cotton exports increased, and Pakistan's production is expected to be 930,000 - 1,008,000 tons. Xinjiang's production needs further observation [31]. 3.3 Third Part: Market Review - Futures Market: - Apple 2601: Closed at 8664, up 26 or 0.30% [32]. - Jujube 2601: Closed at 11110, down 20 or 0.18% [32]. - Sugar 2601: Closed at 5397, down 73 or 1.33% [32]. - Pulp 2511: Closed at 4846, up 4 or 0.08% [32]. - Cotton 2601: Closed at 13265, down 35 or 0.26% [32]. - Spot Market: - Apple: Spot price was 3.75 yuan/jin, unchanged month - on - month and up 0.50 yuan/jin year - on - year [37]. - Jujube: Spot price was 9.40 yuan/kg, down 0.10 yuan/kg month - on - month and down 5.30 yuan/kg year - on - year [37]. - Sugar: Spot price was 5810 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year [37]. - Pulp: Spot price of Shandong Silver Star was 5550 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 700 yuan/ton year - on - year [37]. - Double - offset Paper: Spot price of Tianyang in Tianjin was 4450 yuan/ton, unchanged month - on - month and down 550 yuan/ton year - on - year [37]. - Cotton: Spot price was 14755 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan/ton month - on - month and down 799 yuan/ton year - on - year [37]. 3.4 Fourth Part: Basis Situation No specific summary information provided in the text, only relevant figure references [46]. 3.5 Fifth Part: Inter - month Spread Situation - Apple 10 - 1 Spread: Current value is 536, up 24 month - on - month and down 23 year - on - year, expected to fluctuate; recommended to wait and see [56]. - Jujube 9 - 1 Spread: Current value is 295, up 285 month - on - month and down 115 year - on - year, expected to range - bound; recommended to wait and see [56]. - Sugar 1 - 5 Spread: Current value is 27, down 5 month - on - month and up 9 year - on - year, expected to oscillate; recommended to wait and see [56]. - Cotton 1 - 5 Spread: Current value is - 55, up 5 month - on - month and up 40 year - on - year, expected to range - bound; recommended to wait and see temporarily [56]. 3.6 Sixth Part: Futures Positioning Situation No specific summary information provided in the text, only relevant figure references [64]. 3.7 Seventh Part: Futures Warehouse Receipt Situation - Apple: 0 warehouse receipts, no change month - on - month and year - on - year [82]. - Jujube: 0 warehouse receipts, no change month - on - month and year - on - year [82]. - Sugar: 8488 warehouse receipts, down 193 month - on - month and down 1378 year - on - year [82]. - Pulp: 231287 warehouse receipts, down 104 month - on - month and down 171586 year - on - year [82]. - Cotton: 2823 warehouse receipts, down 44 month - on - month and down 1470 year - on - year [82]. 3.8 Eighth Part: Option - related Data No specific summary information provided in the text, only relevant figure references [82].