有色金属月度策略：Metal Futures Daily Strategy-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core View of the Report - The change in Sino-US trade relations has led to an increase in risk aversion demand, with significant fluctuations in risk assets. The performance within the non-ferrous metals sector is relatively differentiated, with copper showing relatively large fluctuations, while other non-ferrous metals tend to be more cautious in consolidation [12]. - For different non-ferrous metals, specific market conditions and investment suggestions are provided, such as for copper, it is recommended to gradually go long on dips; for zinc, pay attention to the opening of the export window; for aluminum and its industrial chain, adopt a short - selling approach, etc. [4][5][6] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs First Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Operating Logic and Investment Suggestions - Macro Logic: Sino - US trade relations have increased risk aversion demand, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. Non - ferrous metals show internal differentiation, with copper having larger fluctuations and others being more cautious [12]. - Investment Suggestions for Each Metal: - Copper: The supply pressure cannot be relieved, and demand is expected to increase in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go long on dips, with a short - term upper pressure range of 89,000 - 90,000 yuan/ton and a lower support range of 83,000 - 84,000 yuan/ton [4][14]. - Zinc: Pay attention to the opening of the export window. It is expected to continue to fluctuate and consolidate, with an upper pressure around 22,500 - 22,600 and a lower support around 21,800 - 22,000 [5][14]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Adopt a short - selling approach, with different pressure and support ranges for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, and consider buying out - of - the - money options for protection [6][15]. - Tin: Maintain a short - selling operation, with an upper pressure range of 290,000 - 300,000 and a lower support range of 260,000 - 270,000. Consider buying out - of - the - money put options [7]. - Lead: The price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. Consider a wide - range option double - selling strategy, with a support at 16,500 - 16,600 and a pressure at 17,000 - 17,200 [8]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel is in a consolidation trend, with an upper pressure of 125,000 - 128,000 yuan and a lower support of 118,000 - 120,000 yuan. Stainless steel is in a weak - fluctuating range, with a support at 12,500 - 12,600 and a pressure at 13,000 - 13,200 [9]. Second Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Market Review - The closing prices and daily percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are presented, such as copper closing at 84,410 yuan with a - 0.83% change, zinc at 22,220 yuan with a - 0.16% change, etc. [18][19] Third Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Position Analysis - The net long - short strength comparison, net long - short position differences, changes in net long and short positions, and influencing factors of various non - ferrous metal futures contracts are shown, including沪金(AU2512),沪银(AG2512), etc. [20] Fourth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Spot Market - The spot prices and percentage changes of various non - ferrous metals are provided, such as the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous copper spot price at 86,060 yuan/ton with a 1.06% change, and the Yangtze River Non - Ferrous 0 zinc spot price at 22,200 yuan/ton with a - 0.05% change [21][23] Fifth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Chain - For different non - ferrous metals, relevant industry chain data charts are provided, including inventory changes, processing fees, and price comparisons, such as copper exchange inventory changes, zinc inventory changes, etc. [25][28] Sixth Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Arbitrage - Various arbitrage - related data charts for non - ferrous metals are presented, such as the copper Shanghai - London ratio change, zinc Shanghai - London ratio change, etc. [57][59] Seventh Part: Non - Ferrous Metals Options - Option - related data charts for non - ferrous metals are provided, including historical volatility, weighted implied volatility, and trading volume and open interest changes of options, such as copper option historical volatility, zinc option weighted implied volatility, etc. [73][75]