中辉能化观点-20251015

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish continuation [1] - PP: Bearish continuation [1] - PVC: Bearish continuation [1] - PX: Cautiously bearish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [5] - Asphalt: Bearish [5] - Glass: Bearish continuation [5] - Soda ash: Bearish continuation [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The core driver of the energy market is the supply - demand imbalance, with supply often exceeding demand, leading to downward pressure on prices. The macro - environment, such as Sino - US trade frictions and US tariff policies, also has a significant impact on energy prices [1][2][5] - Different products have different supply - demand fundamentals. For example, crude oil is facing supply surplus in the off - season; LPG is affected by the decline in the cost of crude oil; and some products like methanol and urea have complex situations with both supply pressure and potential demand factors [1][2][46] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices continued to decline, with WTI down 2.05%, Brent down 1.47%, and SC down 0.26% [6] - Basic Logic: The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and there is a high probability that the oil price will be suppressed below $60 [7] - Fundamentals: The IEA expects global oil supply to increase by 3 million barrels per day in 2025 and further increase by 2.4 million barrels per day in 2026. The growth of oil demand is expected to be lower. US commercial crude oil inventories increased as of October 3 [8] - Strategy: Partially close short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC [440 - 450] [9] LPG - Market Performance: On October 10, the PG main contract closed at 4,063 yuan/ton, down 0.37% [12] - Basic Logic: The cost of crude oil has decreased, and Saudi Arabia has lowered the CP contract price. The supply has increased slightly, and the demand of some downstream industries has declined [13] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG [4100 - 4200] [14] L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 6,918 yuan/ton, down 0.9% [17] - Basic Logic: Cost support has weakened, the supply pattern is loose, and although the demand season is coming, the restocking power is insufficient [19] - Strategy: The upward driving force is insufficient, and the market will continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of L [6800 - 7000] [19] PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,602 yuan/ton, down 1.4% [22] - Basic Logic: Cost support has weakened, the post - holiday inventory has increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. There is a high pressure to reduce inventory in the future [24] - Strategy: Temporarily follow the cost to be weak and continue to seek the bottom. Pay attention to the range of PP [6500 - 6700] [24] PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 contract closed at 4,692 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan [27] - Basic Logic: The futures and spot prices have both fallen, the cost support has weakened, the inventory has increased, and the supply - demand pattern is loose. However, the absolute price is at a low valuation [28] - Strategy: The short - term supply - demand pattern is difficult to change, continue to explore the bottom weakly. Be cautious when shorting. Pay attention to the range of V [4600 - 4800] [28] PX - Market Performance: On October 10, the PX spot price was 6,618 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan [31] - Basic Logic: The supply and demand are expected to be loose, and the crude oil price has dropped significantly. The PXN and PX - MX are relatively high this year [32] - Strategy: The valuation is not high. Close short positions at low prices and sell call options. Pay attention to shorting opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of PX511 [6330 - 6440] [33] PTA - Market Performance: On October 10, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,485 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the TA01 contract closed at 4,534 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [35] - Basic Logic: The cost support has weakened, and the supply and demand are expected to be loose. The terminal demand has improved slightly [36] - Strategy: The valuation is low. Close short positions at low prices and look for opportunities to short at high prices. Pay attention to the range of TA01 [4450 - 4510] [37] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On October 10, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,190 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; the EG01 contract closed at 4,185 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan [39] - Basic Logic: The cost support has weakened, domestic plants have increased their loads, and the inventory has slightly increased. The terminal demand has improved but is expected to be under pressure [40] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully and pay attention to opportunities to short on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG01 [4040 - 4120] [41] Methanol - Market Performance: On October 10, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,245 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the main 01 contract closed at 2,307 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan [44] - Basic Logic: Sino - US trade frictions and US tariff policies are short - term negatives. The supply pressure is large, but the demand has improved slightly. The inventory has increased again [45] - Strategy: Continue to pay attention to opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Pay attention to the range of MA01 [2300 - 2350] [47] Urea - Market Performance: On October 10, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,540 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main contract closed at 1,597 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan [49] - Basic Logic: The supply is relatively loose, the domestic demand is weak, and the export is relatively good. The inventory has continued to accumulate [50] - Strategy: The recent Indian urea tender has limited positive effects, but the urea valuation is not high. Long - term, pay attention to opportunities to go long lightly at low prices. Pay attention to the range of UR601 [1590 - 1620] [52] Natural Gas - Market Performance: No specific price change data provided [5] - Basic Logic: The supply is sufficient, the macro - risk has increased, and the energy price has weakened. However, the cooling weather and winter gas storage have a certain supporting effect on the gas price [5] - Strategy: Cautiously bearish [5] Asphalt - Market Performance: No specific price change data provided [5] - Basic Logic: The cost of crude oil has weakened, the supply - demand pattern is loose, and the valuation is high [5] - Strategy: Hold short positions [5] Glass - Market Performance: No specific price change data provided [5] - Basic Logic: The market sentiment is weak, the inventory has increased after the holiday, and the real - estate竣工 area has declined. The supply is under pressure [5] - Strategy: The supply - demand pattern is loose. Short - term, short based on the 5 - day moving average [5] Soda Ash - Market Performance: No specific price change data provided [5] - Basic Logic: The futures and spot prices have both fallen, the inventory has increased, the demand has improved slightly, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly [5] - Strategy: The market maintains a high premium structure. Short on rebounds in the medium - long term. Hold the long position of the spread between soda ash and glass [5]