Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are likely to remain at a relatively high level due to the ongoing impact of the Indonesian mine accident, but the probability of prices exceeding previous domestic historical highs is low considering the uncertainty of the US government's tariff stance towards China and the upcoming month - end meeting. High copper prices have made downstream buyers cautious, and the market is unlikely to offer a higher premium until there is substantial progress in Sino - US trade [1]. - The aluminum market is overall bearish but approaching a bottom. After the end of the rainy season, bauxite shipments have resumed, and the price of bauxite has room to decline. The supply pressure of aluminum ingots has eased, and the destocking process is relatively optimistic. The market is re - evaluating the demand fulfillment in the second half of the "Silver October," and aluminum prices are expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern, but further price increases depend on demand improvement [2]. - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Although the inventory pressure of primary nickel is emerging, macro - level disturbances need to be watched out for. The nickel - iron price is stable, and the stainless - steel price is supported by the nickel - iron price. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, and the demand for ternary materials has increased month - on - month, but the production schedule of ternary precursors has decreased [2]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Research Views Copper - Macro: Fed Chairman Powell's speech soothed the market, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in October and December is over 90%. The US government shutdown may impact the economy, and the White House plans to continue layoffs. In China, attention should be paid to Sino - US trade policies and important upcoming meetings [1]. - Inventory: LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons to 138,800 tons; SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons to 36,295 tons; BC copper increased by 2,171 tons to 9,189 tons [1]. - Demand: High copper prices have made downstream buyers cautious, and the market is cautious until Sino - US trade makes substantial progress [1]. Aluminum - Price: Overnight, alumina,沪铝, and aluminum alloy all trended weakly. The SMM alumina price dropped to 2,955 yuan/ton, and the aluminum ingot spot was at a discount of 50 yuan/ton to par [1][2]. - Market: Alumina plant profits have been further compressed, high - cost production capacity has turned to losses and stopped production. After the end of the rainy season, bauxite shipments have resumed, and the price of bauxite has room to decline. The market is re - evaluating the demand fulfillment in the second half of the "Silver October" [2]. Nickel - Price: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.49% to $15,105/ton, and SHFE nickel fell 0.17% to 120,870 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory increased by 1,164 tons to 243,258 tons; domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 245 tons to 25,027 tons [2]. - Industry Chain: The nickel - iron price is stable, and the stainless - steel price is supported by the nickel - iron price. The social inventory of stainless steel has increased significantly after the holiday. In the new energy industry chain, the raw material supply is tight, and the demand for ternary materials has increased month - on - month, but the production schedule of ternary precursors has decreased [2]. Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper increased by 950 yuan/ton to 85,960 yuan/ton, and the premium of flat - water copper decreased by 25 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 550 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 3,405 tons. The social inventory (domestic + bonded area) increased by 3.6 tons to 25.7 tons [3][4]. - Aluminum: The price of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai increased slightly. The LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,050 tons, and the SHFE aluminum total inventory increased by 1,180 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 0.1 tons to 65.0 tons, and the alumina social inventory increased by 0.3 tons to 6.3 tons [5]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 375 yuan/ton. The LME nickel inventory increased by 1,164 tons, and the SHFE nickel inventory increased by 3,604 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 2,866 tons [5]. - Zinc: The主力结算价 remained unchanged. The LME zinc inventory increased by 1,125 tons, and the SHFE zinc inventory increased by 793 tons. The social inventory increased by 1.73 tons to 15.35 tons [7]. - Tin: The主力结算价 decreased by 0.5%. The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 550 tons, and the LME tin inventory remained unchanged [7]. Chart Analysis - Spot Premium: Charts show the trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [9][11][12]. - SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the trends of the spread between the first - and second - month contracts for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [13][17][19]. - LME Inventory: Charts present the trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [20][22][24]. - SHFE Inventory: Charts show the trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [27][29][31]. - Social Inventory: Charts display the trends of social inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series stainless steel from 2019 - 2025 [33][35][37]. - Smelting Profit: Charts show the trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2025 [40][42][46]. Team Introduction - The research team consists of Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with over a decade of commodity research experience. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research, both providing in - depth reports and policy interpretations [49][50].
有色商品日报-20251015
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-10-15 06:25