光大期货农产品日报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Corn: Oscillatory rebound [1] - Soybean Meal: Oscillatory [1] - Oil: Upward [1] - Eggs: Oscillatory [1] - Pork: Oscillatory [2] Core Views - Corn prices are expected to rebound after a decline due to the release of the pressure of a bumper harvest and the emergence of farmers' reluctance to sell. Soybean meal is affected by uncertainties in US soybean demand and domestic supply, showing an oscillatory weak trend. Oil has short - term pressure but a long - term positive outlook. Egg futures rebounded from the bottom, while the supply pressure of eggs is large. Pork prices continue to be weak [1][2]. Summary by Directory Research Views - Corn: On Tuesday, the November corn contract fell and then closed slightly up, breaking through the 2100 - yuan integer mark. The spot price continued to decline, with the domestic average price at 2220 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The price in the Northeast was weak, and the price in North ports and the marketing areas also declined. Technically, the sharp decline of the November contract released the pressure of a bumper harvest. With the cooling weather in the Northeast, farmers' reluctance to sell increased, and the futures price showed a stable performance at a low level [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans closed lower due to uncertainties in US soybean demand. Brazil's soybean exports are expected to increase. Domestically, protein meal declined, and soybean meal fell below 2900 yuan/ton. Macro uncertainties, abundant domestic spot supply, and sufficient soybean arrivals in the fourth quarter suppress the market, with an oscillatory weak strategy [1]. - Oil: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil fell for the third consecutive day. High - frequency data showed that the export of Malaysian palm oil increased from October 1 - 10. Domestically, the three major vegetable oils declined. The short - term pressure exists, but the long - term trend is positive, with a strategy of buying on dips [1]. - Eggs: On Tuesday, egg futures rebounded from the bottom, with the main 2511 contract rising 1.57% to 2852 yuan/500 kilograms. The supply of eggs is normal, and the digestion speed in most areas is average. There are no new positive factors in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Pork: On Tuesday, pork futures closed slightly up in an oscillatory manner. The spot price continued to decline, with the national average price of ternary live pigs at 10.81 yuan/kg. The daily slaughter volume increased, and the futures price was dragged down by the spot price [2]. Market Information - Malaysia has lowered the reference price of crude palm oil for November to 4262.23 ringgit per ton (1008.1 US dollars), while keeping the export tariff at 10% [2]. - Indonesia may regulate crude palm oil exports to ensure domestic supply for biodiesel production. The plan to increase to B50 in the second half of 2026 may reduce global edible oil supply [3]. - During the "14th Five - Year Plan" period, China's annual grain purchase volume exceeded 400 million tons, with abundant grain reserves and a stable market [3]. - China urges the US to correct wrong practices, show sincerity in negotiations, and promote the healthy development of Sino - US economic and trade relations [4]. Variety Spreads - The report provides charts of contract spreads and contract basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean meal, oil, eggs, and pork, including 1 - 5 spreads and basis, with data sourced from Wind and the Everbright Futures Research Institute [5][6][7][11][13][14][15][17][19][23][25] Introduction of the Agricultural Product Research Team - The team includes Wang Na, the director of the agricultural product research at Everbright Futures Research Institute; Hou Xueling, a soybean analyst; and Kong Hailan, a researcher in the egg and pork industries. They have rich experience and many honors [27]