光大期货碳酸锂日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - On October 14, 2025, the lithium carbonate futures 2511 contract rose 0.5% to 72,680 yuan/ton. Spot prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and the warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1,538 tons to 35,180 tons [3]. - Supply is expected to increase month - on - month. In October, domestic lithium carbonate production increased by 3% month - on - month to about 90,000 tons. In terms of imports and exports, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile in September decreased, which may have a small impact on imported lithium salts in October. On the demand side, October is a peak season. The consumption of lithium carbonate by the two major main materials increased by 2% month - on - month to 104,800 tons, and the total consumption of lithium carbonate by cathode + electrolyte + others increased by 7% month - on - month to 123,800 tons. The total inventory continued to decline to 135,000 tons, with downstream and intermediate links reducing inventory and upstream accumulating inventory [3]. - The peak demand season, lithium carbonate inventory reduction, and firm lithium ore prices support the price. However, there are still expectations of project复产, and with the supplement of overseas import increments, the domestic tight balance will gradually ease, and the price will fluctuate in the short term [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Futures: The closing price of the main contract increased by 400 yuan/ton to 72,680 yuan/ton, and the closing price of the continuous contract increased by 900 yuan/ton to 72,700 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium ore: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) decreased by 1 US dollar/ton to 828 US dollars/ton, the price of lithium mica (Li2O:1.5% - 2.0%) decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 1,025 yuan/ton, and the price of lithium mica (Li2O:2.0% - 2.5%) decreased by 40 yuan/ton to 1,725 yuan/ton [5]. - Lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide: The prices of battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles), battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder), and industrial - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) all decreased by 100 yuan/ton, while the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) remained unchanged at 9.48 US dollars/kg [5]. - Lithium hexafluorophosphate: The price increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton [5]. - Price differences: The price difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the price difference between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged, while the value of CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide increased by 113 yuan/ton [5]. - Precursor and cathode materials: The prices of ternary precursor 523 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary precursor 523 (single - crystal/consumer type), ternary precursor 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), ternary precursor 811 (polycrystalline/power type), ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type), ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type), ternary material 622 (polycrystalline/consumer type), ternary material 811 (power type), and cobaltate (60%, 4.35V/domestic) all increased, while the prices of lithium iron phosphate (power type), lithium iron phosphate (mid - to - high - end energy storage), lithium iron phosphate (low - end energy storage), lithium manganate (power type), and lithium manganate (capacity type) remained unchanged [5]. - Cells and batteries: The price of cobaltate cells increased by 0.1 yuan/Ah, while the prices of other cells and batteries remained unchanged [5] 3.2 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF), lithium mica (1.5% - 2.0%), lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%), and lithium aluminum phosphate stone (6% - 7%) from 2024 to 2025 [6][8] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Charts display the price trends of metallic lithium, battery - grade lithium carbonate average price, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price, battery - grade lithium hydroxide price, industrial - grade lithium hydroxide price, and lithium hexafluorophosphate price from 2024 to 2025 [10][12][14] - Price differences: Charts present the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, battery - grade lithium carbonate and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, CIF China, Japan, and South Korea battery - grade lithium hydroxide - SMM battery - grade lithium hydroxide, and others from 2024 to 2025 [17][19] - Precursor and cathode materials: Charts show the price trends of ternary precursors and ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, lithium manganate, and cobaltate from 2024 to 2025 [23][26][28] - Lithium battery prices: Charts display the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobaltate cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [30][32] - Inventory: Charts present the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February 20, 2025, to October 9, 2025 [36][38] - Production cost: The chart shows the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as外购三元极片黑粉,外购磷酸铁锂极片黑粉,外购锂云母精矿, and外购锂辉石精矿 from 2024 to 2025 [42]