工业硅、多晶硅日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On the 14th, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 8,520 yuan/ton, a daily decline of 2.18%, and the position decreasing by 3,048 lots to 163,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,557 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,900 yuan/ton, and the spot premium expanded to 410 yuan/ton. Polysilicon fluctuated strongly, with the main 2511 contract closing at 49,990 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 2.55%, and the position decreasing by 6,277 lots to 81,388 lots. The price of N-type recycled polysilicon material rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material also rose to 52,500 yuan/ton, with the spot premium narrowing to 2,520 yuan/ton [2]. - There are rumors in the market that the state will regulate the photovoltaic production capacity, leading to a divergence in the trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon. Currently, the demand for polysilicon and aluminum alloy is resilient, and the main variable lies in the supply side. Large - scale production shutdowns are about to start in the southwest. Attention should be paid to the resumption time and supplementary production scale in the north. Considering the resumption rhythm in Xinjiang, short - selling operations at high levels for the far - month contracts are recommended. Additionally, there are news about the registration of a production capacity acquisition platform in October and the arrival of funds in November [2]. - Due to the failure to reach an agreement on production cuts in October, production continued to rise. Coupled with the under - performance of tenders, the domestic component production schedule declined, and the overall terminal market remained weak. After November, major manufacturers will conduct maintenance, and the supply - demand pattern may improve fundamentally. The market is waiting for the meeting results and the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November. With cautious sentiment, the overall volatility of polysilicon may increase under the influence of news [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Industrial Silicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract decreased from 8,805 yuan/ton on the 13th to 8,520 yuan/ton on the 14th, a decrease of 285 yuan/ton. Among the spot prices, most remained stable, except for some minor price adjustments. The current lowest deliverable price was 8,900 yuan/ton. The spot premium increased from 7 yuan/ton to 410 yuan/ton [3]. - Polysilicon: The futures settlement price of the main contract increased from 48,740 yuan/ton on the 13th to 49,990 yuan/ton on the 14th, an increase of 1,250 yuan/ton. The spot prices of various types of polysilicon remained stable. The current lowest deliverable price was 52,500 yuan/ton, and the spot premium decreased from 3,565 yuan/ton to 2,520 yuan/ton [3]. - Organic Silicon: The price of DMC in the East China market remained stable at 11,200 yuan/ton. The prices of raw rubber and 107 glue also remained unchanged, while the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,700 yuan/ton to 13,500 yuan/ton [3]. - Inventory: For industrial silicon, the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 50,854. The total social inventory increased by 2,500 tons to 445,000 tons. For polysilicon, the warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 7,900, and the total social inventory increased by 13,000 tons to 254,000 tons [3]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices: Charts show the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices [4][6][11]. - Downstream Product Prices: Charts display the prices of DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components [14][16][18]. - Inventory: Charts present the inventory of industrial silicon futures, factory warehouses, weekly industry inventory, and changes in weekly inventory, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC and polysilicon [20][23]. - Cost and Profit: Charts show the average cost and profit levels in major production areas, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, profit of the aluminum alloy processing industry, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of polysilicon [26][28][33]. 3.3 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, a science master, the current director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior precious metals researcher, a gold intermediate investment analyst, an excellent metals analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the best industrial product futures analyst of Futures Daily and Securities Times. He has more than a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles in public newspapers and magazines. The team has won the awards for the best non - ferrous metal industry futures research team of Futures Daily and Securities Times in the 15th and 16th sessions and the title of the excellent non - ferrous metal industry team of the Shanghai Futures Exchange in 2016 [35]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [35]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [36].