黑色商品日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry - wide investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Steel: The current steel production is at a high level, inventory is accumulating, and supply - demand pressure is increasing. Sino - US trade friction uncertainty may disrupt market sentiment. The short - term steel futures market is expected to be weak and volatile [1]. - Iron Ore: The supply and demand sides are in a state of long - short entanglement. Although the demand side is still at a relatively high position, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Coking Coal: The supply side is mainly in normal production, and the demand side is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. The short - term coking coal futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - Coke: The supply side maintains production, and the demand side is supported by procurement needs, but downstream procurement is cautious. The short - term coke futures market is expected to fluctuate widely [1]. - Silicomanganese: The market sentiment is changeable, and the fundamental driving force is limited. It is expected to fluctuate with the black - goods sector in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel tenders [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The market sentiment is unstable, and the demand - side boost is limited. It is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and new steel tenders [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The closing price of the rebar 2601 contract was 3061 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22 yuan/ton or 0.71% from the previous trading day, with an increase in positions of 38,700 lots. Spot prices fell slightly, and trading volume declined. In early October 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises increased by 7.5% month - on - month, and the steel inventory increased by 8.2% [1]. - Iron Ore: The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract i2601 was 782 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.5 yuan/ton or 2.8% from the previous trading day. Global, Australian, and Brazilian shipments decreased, iron - water production decreased by 0.23 tons, and port inventories increased by 90.4 tons [1]. - Coking Coal: The closing price of the coking coal 2601 contract was 1153.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.65%. Some coking enterprises made appropriate rigid - demand purchases, and online auction prices rose slightly. New orders for coal mines were still poor [1]. - Coke: The closing price of the coke 2601 contract was 1654.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 12 yuan/ton or 0.73%. The port spot price fell. Coking enterprises maintained production, and some low - inventory steel enterprises were replenishing stocks, but downstream procurement was cautious [1]. - Silicomanganese: The main contract price of silicomanganese was 5738 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The mainstream steel tender in October decreased slightly, and the first inquiry price was 5750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 250 yuan/ton from last month [1][3]. - Ferrosilicon: The main contract price of ferrosilicon was 5378 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.44%. The mainstream steel tender quantity in October decreased by 195 tons. The production enterprise's start - up rate was relatively high, and the inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 3800 tons [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spread: For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was - 53.0, a month - on - month increase of 3.0; the 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coils was - 7.0, a month - on - month increase of 6.0 [4]. - Basis: For example, the basis of the 01 contract of rebar was 149.0, a month - on - month increase of 12.0; the basis of the 01 contract of iron ore was 45.9, a month - on - month increase of 4.9 [4]. - Spot: For example, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3210.0, a month - on - month decrease of 10.0; the spot price of PB powder was 780, a month - on - month decrease of 16 [4]. - Profit and Spread: For example, the rebar's disk profit was - 99.6, a month - on - month increase of 9.1; the coil - rebar spread was 190.0, a month - on - month increase of 9.0 [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Main Contract Price: There are charts showing the closing prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14]. - Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of the main contracts of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][22][23]. - Inter - period Contract Spread: There are charts showing the inter - period contract spreads of rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [26][28][29][30][31][33][34][35][37][39]. - Inter - variety Contract Spread: There are charts showing the inter - variety contract spreads such as the coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron - ore ratio, rebar - coke ratio, coke - iron - ore ratio, coking - coal ratio, and double - silicon difference [41][42][43][45]. - Rebar Profit: There are charts showing the disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of the rebar main contract [46][47][49]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - Qiu Yuecheng: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Black - Goods Research at Everbright Futures, with nearly 20 years of experience in the steel industry [52]. - Zhang Xiaojin: Director of Resource - Product Research at Everbright Futures, with rich experience in the field of resource - product research [52]. - Liu Xi: Black - Goods Researcher at Everbright Futures, good at fundamental supply - demand analysis based on industrial - chain data [52]. - Zhang Chunjie: Black - Goods Researcher at Everbright Futures, with experience in investment trading strategies and spot - futures trading [53].