光大期货软商品日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton: ICE US cotton fell 0.25% to 63.43 cents/pound on Tuesday, CF601 decreased 0.15% to 13,265 yuan/ton, and the main contract's open interest increased by 4,581 lots to 568,000 lots. The international market focuses on the macro - level, with the US government in a shutdown and a data vacuum. Short - term US cotton is expected to remain in low - level oscillations. In the domestic market, new cotton has a strong harvest expectation, with faster picking, delivery, and inspection progress. Supply pressure will persist. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is under pressure but has few major negative factors, so it is expected to operate under pressure [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's exports of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of October increased by 9.45% year - on - year. Domestic sugar spot prices were lowered, and the raw sugar's rebound from a 4.5 - year low drove a slight rebound in domestic futures prices. However, due to the over - supply problem, the rebound is weak. The domestic market lacks strong drivers, and it is expected to have a weak oscillation. Future attention should be paid to the beet sugar pressing progress and the estimated output of cane sugar [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 1 - 5 contract spread was - 55, up 5; the main basis was 1,490, up 1. The Xinjiang spot price was 14,598 yuan/ton, down 44; the national spot price was 14,755 yuan/ton, down 34 [2]. - Sugar: The 1 - 5 contract spread was 26, down 4; the main basis was 403, up 53. The Nanning spot price was 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10; the Liuzhou spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 20 [2]. 3.2 Market Information - Cotton: On October 14, the cotton futures warehouse receipt quantity was 2,823, down 44, with 52 valid forecasts. The cotton arrival prices in different regions were: Xinjiang 14,598 yuan/ton, Henan 14,868 yuan/ton, Shandong 14,758 yuan/ton, and Zhejiang 14,947 yuan/ton. The yarn comprehensive load was 50.9, up 0.2; the yarn comprehensive inventory was 26.1, up 0.1; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive load was 52, unchanged; the short - fiber cloth comprehensive inventory was 29.3, unchanged [3]. - Sugar: On October 14, the Nanning sugar spot price was 5,810 yuan/ton, up 10; the Liuzhou sugar spot price was 5,800 yuan/ton, down 20. The sugar futures warehouse receipt quantity was 8,488, down 193, with 0 valid forecasts [3][4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Cotton: There are charts showing the closing price of the main cotton contract, the main contract basis, the 1 - 5 spread, the 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, the warehouse receipt and valid forecast, and the China Cotton Price Index: 3218B [6][9][10]. - Sugar: There are charts showing the closing price of the main sugar contract, the main contract basis, the 1 - 5 spread, and the warehouse receipt and valid forecast [12][15]. 3.4 Research Team - The research team includes Zhang Xiaojin, a resource product research director focusing on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures; and Sun Chengzhen, engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy [17][18][19].