反内卷持续见效，PPI温和回升：CPI、PPI点评（2025.9）

Inflation Data - September CPI year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.1 percentage points to -0.3%, remaining at a low level since the beginning of the year[3] - Core CPI improved by 0.1 percentage points to 1.0%, the highest since March 2024, driven by rising gold prices and effective fiscal subsidies for durable goods[3] - Food CPI fell by 4.4% year-on-year, with fresh vegetable and fruit prices rising by 6.1% and 1.7% respectively, while pork prices continued to decline due to ample supply[4] Producer Price Index (PPI) Insights - September PPI year-on-year decline narrowed significantly by 0.6 percentage points to -2.3%, influenced by low base effects and anti-involution measures[3] - PPI recovery is expected to be gradual due to weak domestic investment demand, with upstream industrial prices stabilizing as anti-involution progresses[5] - International oil price fluctuations led to a 2.0% month-on-month decline in oil and gas extraction, while coal mining increased by 2.5% month-on-month[5] Economic Outlook - The inflation data indicates a synchronized improvement in core CPI and PPI, with fiscal subsidies continuing to boost durable goods consumption[6] - Uncertainties in the fourth quarter and into 2026 are anticipated due to potential export pressures from cooling external demand and ongoing adjustments in the real estate market[6] - The central government may increase consumption subsidies and effective investment budgets if export declines are significant, with a potential for a small interest rate cut of 10 basis points[6]