新世纪期货集运日报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Each shipping company has issued price adjustment notices, but there are no short - term conditions to support price increases. The futures market may fluctuate at a low level, and it is not recommended to increase positions. Instead, stop - loss should be set [2] - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the current core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process, and it is recommended to participate with a light position or just observe [5] - The main contract remains weak in the short term, while the far - month contracts are relatively strong, which is in line with the bottom - building judgment. Risk - takers are advised to take profits. Attention should be paid to the subsequent market trend, and it is not recommended to hold losing positions. Stop - loss should be set [6] - In the context of international situation turmoil, each contract still follows the seasonal logic with large fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position for the arbitrage strategy [6] - For the long - term strategy, it is recommended to take profits when the contracts reach a high level, wait for the callback to stabilize, and then judge the subsequent direction [6] Summary by Related Catalogs Shipping Freight Index - On October 13, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1031.8 points, down 1.4% from the previous period; the SCFIS for the US - West route was 862.48 points, down 1.6% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 818.97 points, up 11.50% from the previous period; the NCFI for the European route was 698.67 points, up 11.39% from the previous period; the NCFI for the US - West route was 844.43 points, down 0.34% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) announced price was 1160.42 points, up 45.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI European route price was 1068 USD/TEU, up 9.9% from the previous period; the SCFI US - West route was 1468 USD/FEU, up 10.76% from the previous period [3] - On October 10, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1014.78 points, down 6.7% from the previous period; the CCFI for the European route was 1287.15 points, down 8.2% from the previous period; the CCFI for the US - West route was 777.77 points, down 5.7% from the previous period [3] Economic Indicators - In the eurozone, the preliminary September manufacturing PMI was 49.5, back below the boom - bust line, lower than analysts' expectations and the previous value of 50.7. The preliminary services PMI rose from 50.5 to 51.4, exceeding the expected 50.5. The preliminary composite PMI was 51.2, exceeding analysts' expectations. The September Sentix investor confidence index was - 9.2, with an expected - 2 and a previous value of - 3.7 [3] - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month [4] - In the US, the preliminary September S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 52 (the final value in August was 53); the preliminary services PMI was 53.9 (the final value in August was 54.5); the preliminary composite PMI was 53.6 (the final value in August was 54.6) [4] Market Conditions - The Sino - US tariff extension negotiation has no substantial progress, and the tariff war has evolved into a trade negotiation issue between the US and other countries. The current spot price has slightly decreased [5] - On October 10, the main contract 2512 closed at 1570.0, down 3.04%, with a trading volume of 31,500 lots and an open interest of 28,100 lots, an increase of 3834 lots from the previous day [5] - The situation in the Middle East is improving, but although the SCFI index has rebounded, the overall atmosphere is still bearish and the market is under pressure to decline [5] Geopolitical Situation - On October 10, according to Israel Army Radio, the Israeli Defense Forces will soon withdraw to the "preliminary withdrawal line" area as planned by President Trump. However, according to some media reports, the Israeli military's attacks on multiple areas in Gaza are still ongoing [7] - On October 9, Hamas senior official and chief negotiator Khalil al - Hayya announced the achievement of a cease - fire agreement, but he did not mention issues such as Hamas disarmament and the transfer of Gaza's management rights in Trump's "20 - point plan" [7] Contract Rules Adjustment - The up - limit and down - limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 are adjusted to 18% [6]. - The company's margin for contracts 2508 - 2606 is adjusted to 28% [6]. - The daily opening position limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 is 100 lots [6].