9月进出口数据点评：硝烟再起，外贸逆势突围

Export Data - In September, China's exports reached $328.57 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 8.3%, significantly higher than the 4.4% growth in August[3] - Cumulative exports from January to August increased by 6.1%, while imports decreased by 1.1%, resulting in a trade surplus of $87.51 billion[3] - The trade surplus for September was $90.45 billion, reflecting strong export performance driven by seasonal demand and a low base effect from the previous year[3][4] Import Data - In September, imports totaled $238.1 billion, marking a 7.4% year-on-year increase, the highest level recorded this year[17] - Cumulative imports from January to August showed a decline of 1.1%, indicating a recovery trend in domestic demand[17] - Key drivers of import growth included high-tech equipment and essential resources, with aircraft, copper ore, and integrated circuits seeing increases of 48.4%, 13.9%, and 8.4% respectively[19] Market Trends - The global manufacturing sector shows signs of stabilization, but recovery remains fragile, with major economies' PMIs below the expansion threshold[6] - The container freight index (CCFI) fell nearly 12% since early September, indicating a decline in global demand and increased shipping capacity[7][8] - China's export structure continues to upgrade, with high-value products like integrated circuits and ships leading the growth, reflecting enhanced competitiveness in high-end manufacturing[12] Geopolitical Factors - Recent escalations in US-China trade tensions have introduced uncertainty into the external trade environment, with new export controls and tariffs being implemented[24][25] - Despite these tensions, China's export resilience is seen as a buffer against geopolitical risks, with a shift towards diversified markets in Africa and Southeast Asia[14][28]