中辉黑色观点-20251015

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bearish [1][5] - Iron Ore: Short-term participation [1][8] - Coke: Cautiously bearish [1][12] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bearish [1][15] - Silicomanganese: Weak rebound, wait-and-see [1][18] - Ferrosilicon: Weak rebound, wait-and-see [1][18] Core Views - Steel: Downstream demand for construction steel is weak, with real estate and infrastructure dragging down. High inventory and potential contradictions under high hot metal production lead to a weak operation [1][5] - Iron Ore: Fundamentals are moderately strong. Downstream finished products show holiday characteristics with obvious inventory accumulation. Observe the post-holiday inventory digestion speed. Negotiation rumors cause the futures price to fluctuate [1][7] - Coke: The second round of spot price increase is delayed, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to run weakly in a range [1][11] - Coking Coal: The overall coal mine output is expected to rise, and imports are expected to remain high. The short-term tight supply-demand situation has improved, but there may be supply-side disturbances later, and it is expected to run in a range [1][14] - Silicomanganese: Production area supply decreases slightly but remains high. Inventory continues to increase, and the new round of steel procurement has not fully started. Cost supports the price, but the upward drive is limited, with a possible short-term technical rebound [1][17][18] - Ferrosilicon: Production area supply is relatively stable, inventory increases significantly, and the absolute value of warehouse receipts is still high, suppressing the upward price. There may be a short-term technical rebound [1][17][18] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Price Information: Rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices mostly declined, and spot prices also showed a downward trend in most regions. Basis, futures spreads, and spot spreads also had corresponding changes [2] - Market Situation: Rebar's apparent demand decreased month-on-month due to the holiday, production slightly decreased, and inventory increased. Hot-rolled coil's apparent demand also declined month-on-month, production decreased slightly, and inventory increased, in line with seasonal performance [4] Iron Ore - Price Information: Iron ore futures prices declined, and spot prices also decreased. There were changes in spreads, basis, sea freight, and spot indices [6] - Market Situation: Fundamentals are moderately strong. Downstream finished products show holiday characteristics with obvious inventory accumulation. Negotiation rumors cause the futures price to fluctuate [7] Coke - Price Information: Coke futures prices had different changes in different contracts, and spot prices were mostly stable. There were also changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and profit [10] - Market Situation: The second round of spot price increase is delayed, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it follows coking coal to run weakly in a range [11] Coking Coal - Price Information: Coking coal futures prices had different changes in different contracts, and spot prices were mostly stable. There were also changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as production, inventory, and inventory available days [13] - Market Situation: The overall coal mine output is expected to rise, and imports are expected to remain high. The short-term tight supply-demand situation has improved, but there may be supply-side disturbances later, and it is expected to run in a range [14] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Price Information: Futures and spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese had different changes. There were also changes in basis, spreads, and weekly data such as enterprise operating rates, production, and inventory [16] - Market Situation: Silicomanganese production area supply decreases slightly but remains high, inventory continues to increase, and the new round of steel procurement has not fully started. Ferrosilicon production area supply is relatively stable, inventory increases significantly, and the absolute value of warehouse receipts is still high, suppressing the upward price [17]