PVC数据日报-20251015

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report - Due to high macro - policy uncertainty, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Spot Market - On October 14, 2025, the domestic PVC powder market prices declined, with most mainstream market drops ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton. The night - time futures prices decreased, followed by a slight rebound after intraday range - bound trading. Traders' fixed - price quotes in the morning were lowered, high - price transactions were difficult, some basis quotes strengthened, and point - price transactions had price advantages. Downstream procurement enthusiasm was average, and spot transactions were mediocre. For Type 5 calcium carbide materials, the mainstream spot cash self - pick - up prices were 4560 - 4650 yuan/ton in East China, 4620 - 4680 yuan/ton in South China, 4460 - 4550 yuan/ton delivered in Hebei, and 4540 - 4610 yuan/ton delivered in Shandong [1]. Raw Materials and Futures - Coal ash (Q5500) rose from 715 to 720 yuan, an increase of 5 yuan; Shaanxi medium - sized lanthanum charcoal remained unchanged at 730 yuan; Inner Mongolia calcium carbide dropped from 2550 to 2500 yuan, a decrease of 50 yuan; Shandong calcium carbide remained unchanged at 2830 yuan. Futures prices also declined, with Fengli (unspecified) dropping from 4721 to 4692 yuan, a decrease of 29 yuan; East China SG - 5 dropping from 4610 to 4580 yuan, a decrease of 30 yuan; South China SG - 5 dropping by 30 yuan to 4660 yuan [1]. Basis, Profit, and External Market - The basis in East China decreased from - 1118 to - 112, a decrease of 1; in South China, it decreased from - 31 to - 32; another area (marked as R) decreased from - 131 to - 132, a decrease of 1. The profit of Shandong calcium carbide method decreased from - 1210 to - 1240, a decrease of 30; the profit of Inner Mongolia calcium carbide method increased from - 979 to - 889, an increase of 91. In the external market, CFR China remained unchanged at 706; CFR Southeast Asia remained unchanged at 649; FAS Houston dropped from 571 to 551, a decrease of 20 [1]. Operating Rate and Inventory - The overall operating rate decreased from 81.42% to 82.63%, a decrease of 1.21%. The calcium carbide method operating rate decreased from 82.13% to 82.94%, a decrease of 0.81%; the ethylene method operating rate decreased from 79.75% to 81.9%, a decrease of 2.15%. Inventory in East China increased from 48.84 to 50.27, an increase of 1.43; in South China, it increased from 4.93 to 5.43, an increase of 0.5; the social inventory increased from 53.77 to 55.7, an increase of 1.93 [1].