Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2025-10-15 07:24Investment Rating - The investment rating for JD is maintained as "Buy" [2][13]. Core Insights - JD Retail shows strong profitability and is expected to maintain double-digit revenue growth, driven by improvements in gross margin and user engagement [7][9][10]. - The company is actively investing in AI to build a trillion-yuan ecosystem, enhancing its competitive edge across various industries [12][13]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for JD are as follows: - 2023: 1,084,662 million RMB - 2024: 1,158,819 million RMB - 2025E: 1,330,021 million RMB - 2026E: 1,423,952 million RMB - 2027E: 1,521,159 million RMB - The expected growth rates are 3.7% for 2023, 6.8% for 2024, 14.8% for 2025, 7.1% for 2026, and 6.8% for 2027 [6][16]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2025E: 26,957 million RMB - 2026E: 47,745 million RMB - 2027E: 60,504 million RMB [6][8][16]. Q3 2025 Outlook - JD is projected to achieve Q3 2025 revenue of 288.4 billion RMB, reflecting a 10.8% year-over-year increase, with an adjusted net profit of 3.35 billion RMB and a net margin of 1.2% [8][10]. - JD Retail's revenue is expected to increase by 9.4% year-over-year to 246.1 billion RMB in Q3 2025, supported by a strong online retail environment [9][10]. User Engagement and Delivery Business - The total user count for JD increased by 19.1% year-over-year to 891 million in August 2025, indicating strong user engagement [10]. - The food delivery segment is expected to see improved unit economics, leading to narrower losses as collaboration with core retail enhances user activity [10][13].