铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Amid escalating Sino - US game, the A - share market has shifted to a defensive stance. Short - term stock market is expected to fluctuate weakly, while in the long - term, it is still cost - effective to buy on dips. The bond market has risen in the risk - aversion mode [2][3]. - For precious metals, gold and silver showed mixed performance, and short - term volatility may intensify. The long - term view on precious metal prices remains positive, but caution is advised at present [4][5]. - Regarding copper, due to the intensifying Sino - US game, copper prices will continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term. Although Rio Tinto's production increased in Q3, the global mine supply remains tight, and the cost still supports copper prices in the medium term [6][7]. - For aluminum, with attention on trade policy trends, the aluminum market's fluctuations will expand. The fundamental support is good, and prices are expected to remain favorable but with large fluctuations [8][9]. - Alumina is dominated by bearish factors and should be treated as a short - position asset due to supply pressure from long - term contracts, production methods, and imports [10]. - Zinc prices will continue to be weak as both macro and fundamental supports decline marginally. Pay attention to LME inventory and structural changes [11]. - Lead prices will be adjusted as fundamental pressure increases marginally, with supply increasing and consumption remaining flat [12]. - Tin prices will have a short - term high - level adjustment, but the adjustment space is limited due to strong supply - side support. Focus on the support of the 10 - day moving average [14]. - Industrial silicon will have a weak oscillation due to insufficient demand resilience. The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from different sectors is lackluster [15][16]. - Lithium carbonate prices will oscillate weakly. There is a possibility of further decline, and short - term attention should be paid to the support strength at previous lows [17]. - Nickel prices are at the lower end of the oscillation range and are expected to oscillate and rise. The macro environment is dovish, and although the market is cold, the spot resources are scarce [18][19]. - For soda ash and glass, due to poor post - holiday demand, prices will oscillate weakly [20]. - For steel products (螺卷), spot trading is stable, but futures prices are weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [21][22]. - Iron ore prices will oscillate and adjust. Port inventory has increased, and although demand is high, the upward space is limited [23]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, due to abundant supply and weakening sentiment, prices will oscillate and decline in the short term. Pay attention to the support range below [24][25]. - Palm oil prices will have a wide - range oscillation. Oil prices are weak, and the market is waiting for production and demand data and the progress of Indonesia's biodiesel policy [26][27]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts on October 15, 2025, including SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. [28] 3.2 Industry Data Perspective - For copper, on October 14, the SHFE copper main contract price decreased, and the LME copper price also declined. SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained unchanged, while LME inventory decreased. The spot price increased, and the LME copper premium decreased [29]. - For nickel, on October 14, the SHFE nickel main contract price decreased, and the LME nickel price also declined. SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [29]. - For zinc, on October 14, the SHFE zinc main contract price decreased, and the LME zinc price declined. SHFE zinc warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For lead, on October 14, the SHFE lead main contract price decreased, and the LME lead price declined. SHFE lead warehouse receipts remained unchanged, and LME inventory increased [30]. - For aluminum, on October 14, the SHFE aluminum continuous - third contract price decreased, and the LME aluminum price declined. SHFE aluminum warehouse receipts increased slightly, and LME inventory decreased [30]. - For alumina, on October 14, the SHFE alumina main contract price decreased, and the national alumina spot average price also declined. SHFE warehouse inventory increased significantly [30]. - For tin, on October 14, the SHFE tin main contract price decreased, and the LME tin price declined. SHFE tin warehouse receipts decreased, and LME inventory remained unchanged [31]. - For precious metals, on October 14, the prices of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver remained mostly unchanged, with some changes in inventory and the gold - silver ratio [31]. - For steel products, on October 14, the prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [33]. - For iron ore, on October 14, the iron ore main contract price decreased, and there were changes in spot prices, basis, and freight rates [33]. - For coke and coking coal, on October 14, the coke main contract price increased, and the coking coal main contract price also increased. There were changes in spot prices, basis, and spreads [34]. - For lithium carbonate, on October 14, the lithium carbonate main contract price increased slightly, and there were changes in spot prices and spreads [34]. - For industrial silicon, on October 14, the industrial silicon main contract price decreased, and the average prices of different grades in the East China region remained mostly unchanged [34]. - For soybean and rapeseed meal, on October 14, the prices of CBOT soybean, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal futures decreased, and there were changes in import prices, spot prices, and spreads [35].