宏观预期偏暖，镍价谨慎看多

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report cautiously bullish on nickel prices, with a "cautiously bullish" rating [3][40] Core Views of the Report - Macro层面: The Fed has started the interest rate cut path, and the monetary easing pattern is clear. The US dollar is expected to weaken, which is positive for US dollar-denominated assets. However, Trump's policies bring uncertainties, and the downward path of the US dollar index is not clear [3][40] - Fundamentals: Overseas nickel ore supply remains loose, and domestic port inventories have increased significantly. The cost of nickel iron is still under pressure, and the production of 300-series stainless steel is flat with slow de-stocking. The demand for nickel sulfate replenishment is good, and the power terminal is marginally warming up. The overall fundamentals remain weak [3] - Outlook: The macro outlook is positive, but policy risks still exist. Nickel prices are cautiously bullish, and the center of nickel prices will slowly rise this year. Attention should be paid to the RKAB nickel ore approval quota scale in Indonesia [3][40] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In September, the main contract of Shanghai nickel fluctuated strongly. At the beginning of the month, the non-farm payrolls data was revised down, and the market bet on the Fed's interest rate cut, pushing up nickel prices. After the interest rate cut, the bullish sentiment was released, and the price moderately declined. At the end of the month, the US economic data was strong, and the stagflation risk decreased, pushing up nickel prices again. However, the Fed officials' differences on the future interest rate cut path hindered the price increase [8] - The spot premium of refined nickel was strong. In September, the premium of Jinchuan nickel rose from 2,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2,350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, and the premium of imported nickel rose from 450 yuan/ton to 550 yuan/ton. The Fed's interest rate cut and pre-holiday replenishment demand supported the premium [10] 2. Macro Analysis Overseas - The US economic data shows resilience, and the downward trend of the US dollar index faces challenges. The weakening labor market has pushed the Fed to cut interest rates, and the US dollar is expected to weaken in theory. However, Trump's policies make it difficult to assess the relative risk intensity between economies, and the decline of the US dollar index may be more tortuous [13] - The risk of stagflation has decreased. The US consumer spending and disposable income have increased, indicating that the consumer willingness and resilience are both strong. However, there are potential risks in the consumer resilience of the resident sector, and the income structure has certain risks [14] Domestic - Domestic demand vitality needs to be boosted, and export performance is outstanding. Investment and consumption are weak, while export data is eye-catching. However, the structural difference in social financing has intensified, and market confidence needs to be corrected. The export data is good, but the export resilience still faces potential risks [16][17][18] 3. Fundamental Analysis 1. Overseas Disturbances are Limited, and the Loose Expectation of Nickel Ore Continues - Overseas nickel ore supply tends to be loose, but high-grade nickel ore is relatively scarce. The suspension of some mining companies in Indonesia has limited impact. In August, China's nickel ore imports increased significantly, and domestic port inventories have reached a three-year high, but the price of high-grade ore has not loosened [21][22] 2. Smelting Profits have Significantly Recovered, and Domestic Supply Remains High - In September, China's refined nickel production increased year-on-year, and the smelting profit has recovered, boosting the production enthusiasm of the upstream. In August, China's refined nickel imports increased significantly, and the import loss has been continuously corrected. Overall, domestic supply remains high [24][25] 3. The Cost Pressure of Nickel Iron Remains, and the Production Scheduling of Stainless Steel is Expected to Contract - In September, the price of high-nickel pig iron was strong. The production of nickel iron in China decreased slightly, while that in Indonesia increased slightly. The profit of the smelting end first increased and then decreased. The production of 300-series stainless steel was flat, and the market expects a contraction in October. The inventory of 300-series stainless steel has decreased seasonally, but the inventory has accumulated again recently [27][28] 4. The Profit of High-Ice Nickel Process is Considerable, and the Demand for Nickel Sulfate is Good - In September, the price of nickel sulfate was strong. The production of nickel sulfate increased year-on-year and month-on-month, and the profit of the high-ice nickel process has been rising. The market resources of nickel sulfate are relatively scarce, and the spot purchase is hot. In August, China's nickel sulfate imports increased slightly, while exports decreased slightly [32] 5. There are Structural Differences in the Power Terminal, and the Heat of the Commercial Vehicle Market Continues - In August, the production and sales growth rates of domestic new energy vehicles slowed down, but the commercial vehicle market maintained a high growth rate. Overseas, the sales of new energy vehicles in Europe and the United States have increased year-on-year. The new energy vehicle market shows significant structural differentiation [34][36] 6. Both Domestic and Overseas Inventories are Increasing, and there may be an Inflection Point in Inventory Accumulation this Year - As of October 10, domestic refined nickel social inventories have increased, and the inventories of the two major exchanges have also increased significantly. In the future, the supply side may remain high, while the demand side has no obvious boost, and the spot faces strong inventory accumulation pressure. The Fed's interest rate cut may affect the inventory accumulation trend of the exchanges [38] 4. Market Outlook - Supply: The profit of the smelting end is not good, and the domestic production increase motivation is insufficient. Overseas Russian nickel resources are abundant, and there is no immediate concern about supply [40] - Demand: The real estate transaction growth rate has turned negative, and the subsidy funds for the power end are controlled, so the demand increase is limited [40] - Cost: The supply of nickel ore tends to be loose, high-grade ore is scarce, and the ore price is stable [40] - Macro: The interest rate cut expectation is clear, but policy risks still exist. The macro outlook is positive, but nickel prices are cautiously bullish [40]