Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price may maintain a range-bound operation. The supply increase from new capacity release and process optimization exerts downward pressure on prices, while the strong demand in the power and energy storage sectors supports inventory reduction and provides some price support. If downstream restocking accelerates or the warehouse receipt registration volume falls short of expectations, the price may test the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the seasonal production reduction of salt lakes in late October and the production scheduling data of battery cell factories for guidance on supply-demand marginal changes [3] - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase steadily in October, but the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields will drive the market into a significant inventory reduction phase, potentially leading to a temporary supply shortage [6] Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - Carbonate Lithium Futures Market Data Analysis - On October 14, the main contract of lithium carbonate closed at 72,280 yuan/ton, a slight decline of 0.8% from the previous day. The basis strengthened to 420 yuan/ton, and the premium of the spot over the futures widened [1] - The open interest of the main contract decreased for four consecutive days, dropping to 207,000 lots on October 14, and the trading volume also shrank to 282,000 lots [1] - Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply, Demand, and Inventory Changes - Supply Side: The prices of spodumene and lepidolite concentrates remained stable at 6,370 yuan/ton and 3,400 yuan/ton respectively, providing cost support. New capacity at the salt lake end was accelerating, with the 10,000-ton lithium carbonate project of Tibet Mining's Zabuye Salt Lake officially put into production on September 24 and Tianqi Lithium's 30,000-ton lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang completed. However, the capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate in October remained unchanged at 71.31%, possibly affected by the ramp-up of new production lines [2] - Demand Side: The sales of new energy vehicles maintained high growth, with the retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles reaching 58.5% in September. The demand for power batteries was strong, and the supply and demand in the energy storage market were both booming, supporting a 4.4% weekly increase in the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate to 71,500 yuan/ton [2] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: The total inventory of lithium carbonate decreased for four consecutive weeks, dropping to 135,000 physical tons on October 10, a 2.7% decrease from the end of September [2] - Market Summary - In the short term, the lithium carbonate futures price may maintain a range-bound operation. The supply increase from new capacity release and process optimization exerts downward pressure on prices, while the strong demand in the power and energy storage sectors supports inventory reduction and provides some price support. If downstream restocking accelerates or the warehouse receipt registration volume falls short of expectations, the price may test the upper limit of the range. Attention should be paid to the seasonal production reduction of salt lakes in late October and the production scheduling data of battery cell factories for guidance on supply-demand marginal changes [3] 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - On October 14, 2025, compared with October 13, 2025, the main contract of lithium carbonate increased by 400 yuan/ton to 72,680 yuan/ton, a 0.55% increase; the basis decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 220 yuan/ton, a 47.62% decrease; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 14,532 lots to 192,931 lots, a 7.00% decrease; the trading volume of the main contract decreased by 11,851 lots to 270,327 lots, a 4.20% decrease; the market price of battery-grade lithium carbonate increased by 200 yuan/ton to 72,900 yuan/ton, a 0.28% increase; the market price of spodumene concentrate remained unchanged at 6,370 yuan/ton; the market price of lepidolite concentrate remained unchanged at 3,400 yuan/ton; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate increased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 73,500 yuan/ton, a 2.80% increase; the price of power ternary materials increased by 300 yuan/ton to 125,500 yuan/ton, a 0.24% increase; the price of power lithium iron phosphate remained unchanged at 33,530 yuan/ton [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Spot Market Quotations - On October 14, the SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,007 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price of battery-grade lithium carbonate was 72,400 - 73,600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 73,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day; the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate was 70,150 - 71,350 yuan/ton, with an average price of 70,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The futures price of lithium carbonate continued to fluctuate, with the center of the main contract moving up to the range of 72,400 - 74,500 yuan/ton. The psychological expectation price of downstream material factories was relatively low, and the overall trading activity in the market was average. In terms of supply, new production lines were put into operation at both the spodumene and salt lake ends, and it was expected that the total output of lithium carbonate in October would still have growth potential. In terms of demand, the new energy vehicle market in the power sector was growing rapidly in both commercial and passenger vehicles, and the supply and demand in the energy storage market were both booming. Overall, although the supply in October was increasing steadily, the strong demand in the power and energy storage fields would drive the market into a significant inventory reduction phase, and it was expected to form a temporary supply shortage [6] - Downstream Consumption Situation - According to preliminary statistics from the Passenger Car Association on October 11, from September 1 - 30, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide were 1.307 million, a 16% increase compared to September last year and a 17% increase compared to the previous month. The retail penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles nationwide was 58.5%. The cumulative retail sales this year were 8.878 million, a 24% increase compared to the same period last year. From September 1 - 30, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide were 1.489 million, a 21% increase compared to September last year and a 15% increase compared to the previous month. The wholesale penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles by manufacturers nationwide was 53.8%. The cumulative wholesale sales this year were 10.433 million, a 32% increase compared to the same period last year [7] - Industry News - On September 28, the latest news of EVE Energy (300014) showed that on September 20, the electromechanical equipment of its Hungary base officially entered the site, marking that the civil engineering project of the base had entered a critical stage. As an important part of EVE's global strategy, the base is positioned as the core manufacturing center of the European new energy industry, covering an area of 450,000 square meters. After completion, it will supply large cylindrical batteries to BMW Group's Debrecen factory, and it is expected to be completed in 2026, creating about 1,000 jobs [9] - On September 26, according to "Zhangjiagang Release", on September 25, Tianqi Lithium's (002466) 30,000-ton battery-grade lithium hydroxide project in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone, Jiangsu, was completed and put into production. The project was the first project implemented and completed in Tianqi Lithium's "Five-Year Strategic Plan" and was also the second fully automated battery-grade lithium hydroxide (lithium carbonate) factory of Tianqi Lithium in Zhangjiagang. Tianqi Lithium is a global leading new energy materials enterprise centered on lithium, committed to providing sustainable lithium solutions for the global green and low-carbon energy transformation from the development and application of lithium resources to the processing of lithium products. Tianqi Lithium has 5 production bases globally, and the Zhangjiagang production base has formed an annual production capacity of 20,000 tons of battery-grade lithium carbonate [9] - On September 26, Tibet Mining's (000762.SZ) 10,000-ton lithium carbonate project at the Zabuye Salt Lake, which had been planned for four years, was officially put into production. According to the company's announcement on the same day, after full efforts, the project successfully completed a 120-hour functional assessment from September 20 - 24, 2025, marking the official operation of the project. Some industry analysts believed that the release of the project's production capacity would significantly improve the self-sufficiency rate of domestic lithium resources. Tibet Mining previously disclosed that the Zabuye Salt Lake in Tibet, where it has exclusive mining rights, is one of the world's three largest and Asia's largest lithium ore salt lakes, a special comprehensive large-scale salt lake deposit rich in lithium, boron, and potassium, with both solid and liquid phases [10] 4. Industrial Chain Data Charts - The content mainly lists various data charts related to the lithium carbonate industry chain, including the main contract and basis of lithium carbonate futures, the prices of battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate, lithium concentrate, lithium hexafluorophosphate and electrolyte, ternary precursor, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, the operating rate and inventory of lithium carbonate, and the selling price of battery cells, along with their data sources [11][14][16]
锂矿争议趋于平稳，碳酸锂窄幅波动下略显疲态
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-15 07:47