供给扰动叠加市场避险需求，铜价短期存在强支撑

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Short - term copper prices are likely to run strongly around 85,000 yuan. Supply - side disruptions in copper mines continue, and the market's risk - aversion sentiment is high due to the potential shutdown of the US federal government. These two factors drive up the futures price, and copper prices may not decline until these factors subside [3]. - In the next week, copper prices may oscillate at a high level due to the interaction between supply shortages and demand uncertainties. It is estimated that copper prices will fluctuate between 84,000 - 86,000 yuan/ton (SHFE) and 10,500 - 11,000 US dollars/ton (LME) [35][36]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary - Price Changes: On October 14, the SHFE copper main - contract price dropped from 86,310 yuan/ton to 84,900 yuan/ton, while the LME copper price rebounded slightly from 10,374 US dollars/ton to 10,802 US dollars/ton. The LME (0 - 3) basis strengthened significantly, rising from - 31.19 US dollars/ton to 226.78 US dollars/ton. The domestic premium for premium copper increased from 80 yuan/ton to 150 yuan/ton, and the flat - copper changed from a discount of 5 yuan/ton to a premium of 45 yuan/ton [1]. - Inventory Changes: LME inventory increased by 2,926 tons to 32,890 tons for three consecutive days of inventory accumulation. SHFE inventory decreased slightly by 50 tons to 139,350 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,350 short tons to 340,875 short tons [1]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring | Index | October 14, 2025 | October 13, 2025 | September 30, 2025 | Change | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM: 1 Copper (Premium Copper) | 86,070 yuan/ton | 85,180 yuan/ton | 86,770 yuan/ton | 890 yuan/ton | 1.04% | | SMM: 1 Copper (Flat Copper) | 20 yuan/ton | 45 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | - 25 yuan/ton | - 55.56% | | SMM: 1 Copper (Wet - Process Copper) | - 45 yuan/ton | - 45 yuan/ton | - 75 yuan/ton | 0 yuan/ton | 0.00% | | LME (0 - 3) | 55 US dollars/ton | 227 US dollars/ton | - 31 US dollars/ton | - 172 US dollars/ton | - 75.80% | | SHFE Price | 85,320 yuan/ton | 84,900 yuan/ton | 86,310 yuan/ton | 420 yuan/ton | 0.49% | | LME Price | 10,585 US dollars/ton | 10,802 US dollars/ton | 10,374 US dollars/ton | - 218 US dollars/ton | - 2.01% | | LME Inventory | 36,295 tons | 32,890 tons | 29,964 tons | 3,405 tons | 10.35% | | SHFE Inventory | 138,800 tons | 139,350 tons | 139,400 tons | - 550 tons | - 0.39% | | COMEX Inventory | 342,280 short tons | 340,875 short tons | 339,525 short tons | 1,405 short tons | 0.41% | [5] 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - October 11: Chile's mining authority is investigating a worker's death at BHP's Escondida copper mine, and the mine is operating normally after the incident [6]. - October 10: Codelco's copper production in August dropped significantly to 93,400 tons due to an accident at its El Teniente copper mine, which caused six deaths and subsequent shutdown [6]. - October 9: Japan's PPC expects its copper production in the second half of the 2025/26 fiscal year to decline by 2.5% year - on - year to 287,400 tons. Mitsubishi Materials Corporation will reduce the concentrate processing volume of its Onahama smelter by about 25%, equivalent to about 75,000 ore tons in the second half of the year [6]. - October 9: Aurubis raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to 315 US dollars/ton, a record high [6]. - October 9: Teck Resources' Quebrada Blanca copper mine extended its shutdown due to tailings dam construction. Its 2025 copper production guidance was lowered from 210,000 - 230,000 tons to 170,000 - 190,000 tons, and the 2026 forecast production was also reduced. Highland Valley Copper also lowered its 2025 production guidance due to grade decline and maintenance needs [7]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on China's PMI, US PMI, US employment situation, the correlation between the US interest rate and LME copper price, the correlation between the US dollar index and LME copper price, TC processing fees, CFTC copper positions, LME copper net - long positions, Shanghai copper warrant volume, LME copper inventory changes, COMEX copper inventory changes, and SMM social inventory [8][10][12]