瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The short - term V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly, with technical attention on the low - level support around 4665. Last week, the PVC capacity utilization rate increased slightly, while the downstream开工率 decreased. The inventory continued to accumulate and reached a new high. The cost of PVC's calcium carbide method and ethylene method decreased, and the profit was slightly repaired. In the medium - to - long term, the supply pressure of PVC remains high. After the holiday, downstream enterprises resumed production, but demand growth is limited by the weak domestic real - estate market. The export market may remain on the sidelines due to the Indian anti - dumping tax, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate at a high level. The calcium carbide method process is deeply in loss, and the cost - side support is limited. Market sentiment is weak, and industrial products mainly declined during the day [3][5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC was 4692 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan; the trading volume was 736,644 lots, an increase of 94,686 lots; the open interest was 1,254,279 lots, an increase of 19,246 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 921,931 lots, an increase of 15,375 lots; the short positions were 1,077,284 lots, an increase of 17,675 lots; the net long positions were - 155,353 lots, a decrease of 2,300 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,890 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19.23 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,845 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,694.38 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 715 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,800 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2,673.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11.67 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,530 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 150 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 524 US dollars/ton, an increase of 11 US dollars; in Southeast Asia, it was 549 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 189 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 201 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 82.63%, an increase of 3.66 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 82.94%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.9%, an increase of 2.15 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 55.7 tons, an increase of 1.93 tons; the total inventory in the East China region was 50.27 tons, an increase of 1.43 tons; the total inventory in the South China region was 5.43 tons, an increase of 0.5 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index was 93.05, a decrease of 0.29. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 39,801.01 million square meters, an increase of 4,595.01 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate construction area was 643,108.94 million square meters, an increase of 4,377.94 million square meters. The cumulative value of real - estate development investment was 316.9394 billion yuan, an increase of 35.8801 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 11.38%, an increase of 0.06 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.04%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.72%, an increase of 0.31 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.73%, an increase of 0.32 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From October 4th to 10th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 82.63%, a month - on - month increase of 1.21%. The downstream operating rate of PVC decreased by 8.55% to 39.21%, among which the operating rate of pipes decreased by 7.6% to 32.83%, and the operating rate of profiles decreased by 23.04% to 15.87%. As of October 9th, the social inventory of PVC was 103.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.58%. From October 4th to 10th, the cost of PVC's calcium carbide method decreased by 168 yuan/ton to 5,126 yuan/ton, and the cost of the ethylene method decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 5,493 yuan/ton; the profit of the calcium carbide method increased by 153 yuan/ton to - 622 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ethylene method increased by 20 yuan/ton to - 538 yuan/ton [3].