瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20251014

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic urea supply level has little fluctuation, with daily output around 200,000 tons. After the holiday, due to the start - up of device maintenance in individual enterprises in Ningxia and Shanxi, and the continuous shutdown and transformation of enterprises in Jincheng, Shanxi, the output continues to decline. Domestic agricultural demand has a slight increase but no obvious improvement overall. Industrial demand is relatively stable. The autumn fertilizer production of compound fertilizers is in the later stage, and the demand in most parts of North China is weakening. The compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate is expected to decline slightly. India's RCF has issued a new round of international urea import tenders, but due to the approaching end of China's export window period and the unclear export policy, the impact on the domestic urea market needs continuous tracking. The domestic enterprises still face high - inventory pressure. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1,580 - 1,630 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is 1,597 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan; the 1 - 5 spread is - 74 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan. The main contract's position is 321,992 lots, down 4,162 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 44,696. The exchange's warehouse receipts are 6,570, down 347 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, the price in Hebei is 1,570 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; in Henan, it is 1,520 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu, it is 1,530 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; in Shandong, it is 1,550 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; in Anhui, it is 1,550 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The basis of Zhengzhou urea's main contract is - 47 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan. FOB Baltic is 370 US dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China's main port is 385 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 415,000 tons, down 38,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1,443,900 tons, up 212,200 tons. The urea enterprise's operating rate is 85.66%, up 0.08%. The daily urea output is 200,400 tons, up 200 tons. The urea export volume is 800,000 tons, up 23. The monthly urea output in September 2025 is 5,747,700 tons, 181,200 tons less than last month and 110,900 tons more than the same period [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer's operating rate is 25.5%, down 6.96%. The melamine's operating rate is 65.47%, up 3.95%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 177 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with outsourced urea is 31 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 5,313,300 tons, up 1,092,100 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 30,000 tons, up 1,800 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of October 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 144.39 million tons, up 17.23% from last week. The port inventory is 41.5 million tons, down 8.39% from last week. In September 2025, China's urea output is 5.7477 million tons, 181,200 tons less than last month and 110,900 tons more than the same period. The daily urea output has a slight decline, but it remains above 190,000 tons in the short term [2] 3.6 Tip for Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]