Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-14 09:52Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Short - term L2601 is expected to show a volatile trend. Technically, attention should be paid to the low - level support around 6891 and the pressure of the five - day moving average around 7034. In the long run, PE supply may increase significantly. The downstream shed film demand is gradually reaching its annual peak, but the current performance of agricultural film orders and start - up is not as good as in previous years. Due to the continuous Sino - US trade dispute, market sentiment is weak, and industrial products mainly decline during the day [2] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract for polyethylene (daily, yuan/ton) is 6918, down 65; the 1 - month contract is 6918, down 65; the 5 - month contract is 6949, down 80; the 9 - month contract is 6997, down 74. The trading volume (daily, lots) is 266284, down 13738, and the open interest (daily, lots) is 577097, up 12312. The 1 - 5 spread is - 31, up 15. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders are 417937, up 3411; the short positions are 491357, up 8140; the net long positions are - 73420, down 4729 [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE(7042) in North China (daily, yuan/ton) is 7060.87, down 28.7; in East China is 7240.71, down 15. The basis is 77.87 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore (daily, US dollars/barrel) is 61.47, down 1.11; the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan (daily, US dollars/ton) is 566.75, down 10. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia (daily, US dollars/ton) is 781, unchanged; in Northeast Asia is 786, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national petrochemical PE start - up rate (daily, %) is 83.95, up 1.85 [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rate of polyethylene (PE) for packaging film (weekly, %) is 52.89, up 0.52; for pipes (weekly, %) is 31.67, down 0.5; for agricultural film (weekly, %) is 35.61, up 2.75 [2] Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of polyethylene (daily, %) is 8.03, up 0.37; the 40 - day historical volatility is 7.24, up 0.21. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options for polyethylene (daily, %) is 10.68, up 0.35; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 10.68, up 0.34 [2] Industry News - From October 3rd to 9th, China's total polyethylene production was 66.42 tons, up 3.04% from the previous week; the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene production enterprises was 83.95%, up 1.86 percentage points. From September 26th to October 9th, the average start - up rate of China's polyethylene downstream products increased by 0.24% compared with the previous period, and the agricultural film start - up rate increased by 2.75%. As of October 9th, the inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises was 48.86 tons, up 27.67% from the previous period. As of September 30th, the social inventory of polyethylene was 38.27 tons, down 16.50%. From October 4th to 10th, the cost of oil - based LLDPE decreased by 2.37% to 7414 yuan/ton, and the oil - based profit increased by 172.86 yuan/ton to - 221 yuan/ton; the cost of coal - based LLDPE decreased by 0.30% to 6564 yuan/ton, and the coal - based profit increased by 14.29 yuan/ton to 570.29 yuan/ton [2]