Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom due to the tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and macro - pressures, along with low - inventory support [4]. - Medium - to - long - term: The expected supply surplus after 2026 and the acceleration of energy transformation will suppress the upward space of oil prices, increasing the downward risk [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Market Summary a. Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes - Prices: On October 14, 2025, the SC crude oil main contract closed at 453.7 yuan/barrel, continuing to decline. WTI and Brent closed at $59.14/barrel and $63.39/barrel respectively, rebounding slightly but still in a downward channel. The SC - Brent spread narrowed significantly to $0.22/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread widened to $4.25/barrel. The SC continuous - third contract spread maintained a shallow discount of - 1.8 yuan/barrel [2]. - Positions and Trading Volume: On October 14, the warehouse receipt data of energy and chemical products showed that the warehouse receipts of medium - sulfur crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil were all flat compared with the previous day, indicating no significant delivery pressure in the market [2]. b. Industry Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes - Supply: Multiple institutions warned of a supply surplus. In 2026, the global oil supply surplus may reach 2 million barrels per day, mainly due to the production increase of non - OPEC+ countries and the continuous release of traditional production capacity. India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased by 14.2% year - on - year in September, but Reliance Industries' imports increased by 7.5% month - on - month. The EU plans to ban Russian LNG imports by 2027, with limited short - term impact on crude oil supply and demand [3]. - Demand: Refinery profits were polarized. Taishan Petroleum's net profit in the first three quarters increased by 87% - 125% year - on - year, but the demand side of refined oil was still suppressed by macro - pressures. The current market was not in a surplus state, and short - term demand remained resilient [3]. - Inventory: Global crude oil inventories remained low, with no signs of inventory accumulation in US commercial crude oil and Cushing inventories. The warehouse receipts of crude oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, and fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange showed no significant changes. Geopolitical conflicts still had a marginal supporting effect on prices [3]. c. Price Trend Judgment - Short - term: Oil prices may continue to oscillate widely due to the tug - of - war between geopolitical risk premiums and macro - pressures, along with low - inventory support [4]. - Long - term: The expected supply surplus after 2026 and the acceleration of energy transformation will suppress the upward space of oil prices [4]. 2. Industry Chain Price Monitoring a. Crude Oil - Futures Prices: On October 14, 2025, SC crude oil futures prices decreased by 1.12% to 448.60 yuan/barrel, WTI decreased by 2.32% to $58.18/barrel, and Brent decreased by 1.75% to $62.28/barrel [6]. - Spot Prices: Most spot prices of crude oil decreased, with the Oman spot price decreasing by 1.54% to $63.26/barrel, and the Shengli spot price decreasing by 1.85% to $59.48/barrel [6]. - Spreads: The SC - Brent spread increased by 145.45% to $0.54/barrel, the SC - WTI spread increased by 14.57% to $4.64/barrel, and the Brent - WTI spread increased by 7.05% to $4.10/barrel [6]. - Other Assets: The US dollar index decreased by 0.21% to 99.04, the S&P 500 decreased by 0.16% to 6,644.31 points, and the DAX index decreased by 0.62% to 24,236.94 points [6]. - Inventory and Production: US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 0.89% to 42,026.10 million barrels, Cushing inventories decreased by 3.25% to 2,270.40 million barrels, and the US refinery weekly operating rate increased by 1.09% to 92.40% [6]. b. Fuel Oil - Futures Prices: On October 14, 2025, FU futures prices decreased by 1.35% to 2,700.00 yuan/ton, LU decreased by 0.90% to 3,203.00 yuan/ton, and NYMEX fuel oil decreased by 2.24% to 220.08 cents/gallon [7]. - Spot Prices: Some spot prices of fuel oil increased, with the 180CST marine fuel FOB price in Singapore increasing by 2.26% to $389.19/ton, and the 380CST marine fuel FOB price in Singapore increasing by 1.64% to $379.95/ton [7]. - Paper Prices: The high - sulfur 180 Singapore (near - month) paper price decreased by 2.87% to $369.66/ton, and the high - sulfur 380 Singapore (near - month) paper price decreased by 2.53% to $364.37/ton [7]. - Spreads: The Singapore high - low sulfur spread decreased by 12.09% to $56.30/ton, and the Chinese high - low sulfur spread increased by 1.62% to 503.00 yuan/ton [7]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretations a. Supply - Multiple institutions warned of a supply surplus. Western Petroleum executives predicted that US oil supply would peak between 2027 and 2030, and the petroleum business heads of Trafigura Group and Gunvor Group both mentioned that a supply surplus was imminent [8]. - Spain's natural gas network operator said it was ready to implement the EU's Russian LNG ban if it was advanced to 2027 [9]. - India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased by 14.2% year - on - year in September, but Reliance Industries' imports increased by 7.5% month - on - month [9]. b. Demand - India's Ministry of External Affairs predicted that the Mongolian refinery funded by India would be put into operation in 2028 [10]. - Taishan Petroleum's net profit in the first three quarters of 2025 was expected to increase by 87% - 125% year - on - year, with increased sales of high - margin products [10]. c. Inventory - Gunvor Group's CEO said that oil inventories were very low. The warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil, fuel oil, and medium - sulfur crude oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were all flat compared with the previous day [11]. d. Market Information - The market was waiting and seeing on the Gaza cease - fire agreement and Sino - US trade disputes, and crude oil prices rebounded moderately. Short - term oil markets were expected to consolidate, and medium - to - long - term oil prices faced downward risks [12]. - Multiple institutions had different forecasts for oil prices. Western Petroleum executives predicted that oil prices would rise above $62 after 2026, while Trafigura Group's petroleum business head thought that oil prices might fall further [12]. 4. Industry Chain Data Charts The report provided multiple data charts, including the prices and spreads of WTI and Brent first - line contracts, US crude oil weekly production, OPEC crude oil production, etc., to visually display the industry chain data [13][15][17].
原油、燃料油日报：供应过剩预警施压，油价继续下探-20251015
Tong Hui Qi Huo·2025-10-15 08:25