原油&燃料油数据日报-20251015

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - International oil prices continue to show a weak downward trend due to uncertainties in China-US trade tariffs, which still disrupt global crude oil demand. The crude oil supply-demand situation remains loose. OPEC+ continues its production increase policy and has reached a principled agreement to slightly increase production again in November. From September, crude oil consumption gradually declines, with the end of the US consumption peak season marked by Labor Day in early September. Global crude oil consumption in the off - season drops by 1 - 3 million barrels per day compared to the peak season. Geopolitical tensions have eased, reducing geopolitical risks and allowing more crude oil to enter the market. Short - term oil prices are expected to remain weak. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. - The fuel oil market is under pressure from lukewarm demand and sufficient supply. Although Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased in the week ending October 8, it is expected that the inventory will rise in October due to large supplies received in Asia in September. The spot price difference of fuel oil has increased slightly, but the near - month contract of 0.5% low - sulfur fuel oil still maintains a positive price difference structure, indicating abundant immediate supply. With the expected weak performance of international oil prices, fuel oil lacks strong driving forces. The recommended short - term operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - Domestic Market: SC crude oil closed at 448.6 yuan/barrel, down 5.1 yuan or 1.12% from the previous value; FU high - sulfur fuel oil closed at 2700 yuan/ton, down 37 yuan or 1.35%; LU low - sulfur fuel oil closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan or 0.90% [3]. - Foreign Market: WTI crude oil closed at $59.56 per barrel, unchanged; Brent crude oil closed at $63.39 per barrel, unchanged; Nymex gasoline closed at $1.8015 per gallon, unchanged; ICE diesel closed at $659.50 per ton, unchanged; Nymex natural gas closed at $3.101 per mmBtu, unchanged [3]. 3.2 Spread Data - Crude Oil Spread: SC - WTI spread was 3.60 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 16.86%; SC - Brent spread was - 0.23 yuan/barrel, down 0.73 yuan or 144.66%; Brent - WTI spread was $3.83 per barrel, unchanged; SC monthly spread was - $1.00 per barrel, up $0.30 or - 23.08%; WTI monthly spread was $0.42 per barrel, unchanged; Brent monthly spread was $0.39 per barrel, unchanged [3]. - Fuel Oil Spread: FU monthly spread was 17 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 10.53%; LU monthly spread was 7 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 16.67%; FU - SC spread was - 33 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan or 1.82%; LU - SC spread was 44 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 1.47%; LU - FU spread was 503 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 1.62% [3][4]. 3.3 Spot Prices - Crude Oil: Oman crude oil was at $65.6 per barrel, down $1.35 or 2.02%; Russian ESPO was at $60.43 per barrel, down $0.89 or 1.45%; Brent Dtd was at $67.67 per barrel, down $2.62 or 3.87% [4]. - Fuel Oil: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil was at $377 per ton, down $8 or 2.08%; Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil was at $452.5 per ton, down $10 or 2.21% [4]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - US EIA Data: Crude oil commercial inventory was 420,261 thousand barrels, up 3,715 thousand barrels or 0.89%; gasoline inventory was 219,093 thousand barrels, down 1,601 thousand barrels or 0.73%; distillate oil inventory was 121,559 thousand barrels, down 2,018 thousand barrels or 1.63%; US production was 13,629 thousand barrels per day, up 124 thousand barrels per day or 0.92%; refined oil inventory was 44,540 thousand barrels, down 141 thousand barrels or 0.32% [4]. - Singapore ESG Data: Fuel oil inventory was 23,699 thousand barrels, up 314 thousand barrels or 1.34% [4]. - Exchange Warehouse Receipts: SC crude oil warehouse receipts were 5,401,000, unchanged; FU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 45,800, unchanged; LU fuel oil warehouse receipts were 13,080, unchanged [4]. 3.5 Macro and Shipping Data - Macro Data: The US dollar index was 99.2595, up 0.4372 or 0.44%; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.05%; the RMB/US dollar exchange rate was 7.2545, unchanged; the Baltic BDI was 2,144, up 208 or 10.74% [4]. - Shipping Data: The crude oil freight rate BDTI was 1,141, up 22 or 1.97%; the refined oil freight rate BCTI was 551, down 9 or 1.61% [4].