全球脱碳催化绿醇需求放量关注绿醇供应商与设备投资机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the public utility industry, specifically focusing on green methanol suppliers and equipment investment opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The demand for green methanol is catalyzed by carbon pricing, opening up a market space worth billions in the shipping industry [4]. - Attention is drawn to flexible stocks with cost and consumption advantages among green methanol suppliers [4]. - The demand for biomass gasification equipment is expected to rise due to project initiations in the midstream equipment sector [4]. Supply and Demand - Carbon pricing is driving the demand for green methanol, with the shipping sector poised to unlock a market space exceeding 100 billion [4]. - The traditional methanol market has not yet adopted carbon pricing, leading to a dominance of gray methanol [5][6]. - The global methanol production capacity is projected to reach 177 million tons by 2024, with China accounting for 58% of this capacity [11]. Green Methanol Production - Green methanol is defined as methanol produced with minimal to zero carbon emissions, categorized into electro-methanol and bio-methanol [12]. - The cost of green methanol production is currently high, primarily due to the costs associated with green hydrogen production [15][18]. - The biomass gasification route for methanol production is more cost-effective than electro-methanol, with potential for further cost reductions [21][25]. Regulatory Environment - The EU's carbon tax is set to impact the shipping industry, with regulations requiring reductions in greenhouse gas emissions from 2025 onwards [26][28]. - The International Maritime Organization (IMO) is implementing a net-zero framework that will enforce carbon emission limits and pricing mechanisms starting in 2025 [29][30]. Market Trends - The share of alternative fuel vessels is increasing, with methanol-powered vessels accounting for 10% of the total orders as of September 2025 [50]. - The demand for green methanol is expected to surge, with projections indicating that by 2027, demand could exceed 9 million tons annually [55]. - The supply agreements for green methanol are intensifying, with major shipping companies signing contracts with suppliers [60][63]. Investment Opportunities - Capital expenditures are anticipated to drive equipment demand, while downstream sales are expected to enhance the performance of suppliers [64]. - The report highlights specific companies such as 嘉泽新能 and 吉电股份, which are positioning themselves to benefit from the green methanol market [68][71].