Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating provided in the content. Group 2: Report Core View - Oil prices are running weakly, macro - risks are not fully resolved, and the cost side lacks continuous support. In the fourth quarter, supply remains high in the short - term, demand weakens quarter - on - quarter, inventory accumulation pressure in the industry chain increases, and asphalt itself lacks upward drivers. It is expected to fluctuate weakly on a single - side basis. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of large fluctuations in crude oil. The BU2511 contract should focus on the support around 3300 [8]. Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Related Data - Futures Prices and Positions: On October 15, 2025, compared with the previous day, BU2511 (the main contract) dropped from 3290 to 3250, a decrease of 40 or 1.22%; BU2512 dropped from 3211 to 3184, a decrease of 27 or 0.84%; BU2601 dropped from 3167 to 3154, a decrease of 13 or 0.41%; SC2510 dropped from 448.6 to 443.7, a decrease of 4.9 or 1.09%; Brent first - line dropped from 62.94 to 62.23, a decrease of 0.7 or 1.13%. The main contract position decreased from 9.9 to 8.3 million lots, a decrease of 1.6 or 16.47%; the main contract trading volume increased from 10.1 to 11.3 million lots, an increase of 1.2 or 12.00%; the warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 43900 to 42370 tons, a decrease of 1530 or 3.49% [2]. - Basis and Spread: BU12 - 01 decreased from 44.00 to 30.00, a decrease of 14.00 or 31.82%; BU11 - 12 decreased from 79.00 to 66.00, a decrease of 13.00 or 16.46%; the Shandong - main contract basis increased from 379.00 to 396.00, an increase of 17.00 or 4.49%; the East China - main contract basis increased from 189.00 to 216.00, an increase of 27.00 or 14.29%; the South China - main contract basis increased from 239.00 to 266.00, an increase of 27.00 or 11.30% [2]. - Industrial Chain Spot Prices: The Shandong market price decreased from 3460 to 3450, a decrease of 10.00 or 0.29%; the East China market price remained at 3400, a change of 0.00 or 0.00%; the South China market price remained at 3450, a change of 0.00 or 0.00%. Shandong gasoline decreased from 7387 to 7357, a decrease of 30.00 or 0.41%; Shandong diesel decreased from 6353 to 6331, a decrease of 22.00 or 0.35%; Shandong petroleum coke decreased from 2920 to 2890, a decrease of 30.00 or 1.03%; the diluted asphalt discount remained at - 7.8, a change of 0.00 or 0.00%; the central parity rate of the exchange rate decreased from 7.1021 to 7.0995, a decrease of 0.00 or 0.04% [2]. - Spread and Profit: The asphalt refinery profit increased from 152.63 to 172.80, an increase of 20.16 or 13.21%; the refined oil comprehensive profit increased from 475.89 to 489.14, an increase of 13.25 or 2.79%; BU - SC cracking increased from - 433.19 to - 421.31, an increase of 11.88 or 2.74%; gasoline spot - Brent increased from 1073.62 to 1086.11, an increase of 12.48 or 1.16%; diesel spot - Brent increased from 848.58 to 868.14, an increase of 19.56 or 2.31% [2]. 3.2 Market Research and Judgment - Market Overview: On October 15, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3686 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton or 0.05% from the previous day. Rainy weather in North China and parts of Shandong suppressed terminal demand, and the cost side lacked support recently, so the market wait - and - see sentiment was strong. Traders in North China and Shandong continued to lower the shipping price, driving the market average price down. In the East China Zhenjiang area, there were many low - priced resources, which affected the shipments of refineries and traders. In the South China market, the production and sales of the main refineries were relatively stable, and the asphalt price remained stable [5]. - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price decreased by 5 to 3470 - 3650 yuan/ton. Affected by rainy weather, terminal demand was weak, and the cost side lacked support. The market was pessimistic, and traders continued to lower the shipping price, driving the mainstream transaction center down. In the future, both supply and demand are weak, and the asphalt price may show a weak trend in the short term [5]. - Yangtze River Delta Market: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3540 - 3550 yuan/ton. Market demand was weak, traders' shipments were small, and both the cost side and the asphalt futures market were weak. The asphalt quotation in Zhenjiang area was about 3370 yuan/ton, and the low - priced resources were 11 contracts + 50 yuan/ton. The market preferred low - priced transactions, and the asphalt price in the region may show a weak trend in the short term [5]. - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price remained stable at 3400 - 3530 yuan/ton. Crude oil and futures prices continued to fall, and the market sentiment was pessimistic. The mainstream transaction price of social warehouses in Foshan area remained at about 3340 - 3370 yuan/ton, and the overall transaction was average. In the future, as the weather improves, local market demand will be slowly released, and some main refineries may have maintenance plans, so the spot resources are expected to decrease. However, some refineries have released low - price contracts, and the cost side support is weak. Most downstream users' bearish sentiment remains unchanged, and the local asphalt price will be weakly stable in the short term [6]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides several figures including BU main contract closing price, BU main contract position, East China asphalt market price, Shandong asphalt market price, Shandong refinery gasoline price, and Shandong refinery diesel price, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [11][13][15]
银河期货沥青日报-20251015
Yin He Qi Huo·2025-10-15 08:48