东证化工套利观察（9月）

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The chemical sector performed poorly in September, with most products falling by around 4%. The overall decline indicates worsening supply - demand contradictions. After the National Day holiday, the sector remained in a downward trend, especially upstream raw material prices, mainly due to Trump's tariff threats. Oil price stability will be crucial in curbing the downward trend [2][10]. - The overall inventory of chemical products is high, with EB, urea, soda ash, propylene, and methanol having particularly high inventory levels. EB's inventory worsened, with the inventory percentile rising from 206% in August to 313% in September. Soda ash, urea, and bottle chips showed marginal inventory improvements. However, due to the high overall inventory, the impact on prices is limited. Only a decrease in supply can drive inventory back to normal levels [2][10]. - Most chemical products have low profit margins, with only coal - based chemicals maintaining relatively high profits due to falling coal prices. Profit repair usually lags behind inventory repair. In the current situation of tariff - related raw material price collapses, profit repair, especially for oil - based chemicals, may occur. If profit repair happens before inventory regression, it may exacerbate supply - demand contradictions [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 9 - Month Chemical Sector Market Trend Analysis - In September, except for glass, all other chemical products in the sector declined, with most falling by about 4%. After the National Day, the sector continued to decline, and upstream raw material prices dropped significantly due to tariff threats. Oil price stability is important for curbing the decline [2][10]. - High inventory levels are widespread, with some products' inventory worsening and others improving marginally. Only supply reduction can drive inventory back to normal [2][10]. - Most products have low profit margins, and coal - based chemicals have high profits due to coal price drops. Profit repair is slower than inventory repair, and early profit repair may worsen supply - demand issues [11]. 3.2 Chemical Monthly Spread Arbitrage Focus - Urea: The 2601 - 2605 reverse - spread strategy is recommended to stop - profit and exit. The strategy has performed well, with the 1 - 5 spread weakening to - 70 to - 80 yuan/ton. Factors such as potential demand release, export expectation changes, and valuation suggest it's time to consider exiting [20][21]. - PX: The 11 - 1 monthly positive - spread strategy is recommended to be maintained. Although PTA maintenance in September affected the near - month PX balance, the impact has been digested. With expected PTA load recovery and downstream inventory reduction, the positive - spread structure is likely to continue [24]. 3.3 Chemical Cross - Variety Arbitrage Focus - Glass - Soda Ash: The strategy of going long FG2601 and short SA2601 is recommended to continue. Reasons include potential real - estate policy support for glass, high soda ash supply, and weakening photovoltaic glass demand, which will negatively impact soda ash demand [27]. - Short - Fiber - Bottle Chip: The strategy of widening the PF - PR spread on dips is recommended to continue. The short - fiber supply has limited growth potential, while the bottle - chip supply may face pressure. Short - fiber is in a consumption season, and the tariff - related spread narrowing is expected to reverse [32].