Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-10-15 09:06Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market's commercial inventory has dropped to a low level compared to the same period. Xinjiang's seed cotton purchase price has slightly increased, with machine - picked cotton around 3.0 yuan per catty and hand - picked cotton around 3.50 yuan per catty. New cotton is gradually coming to the market, and the new year's harvest is obvious, leading to increasing supply - side pressure. On the demand side, textile mill orders have not improved significantly, the operating rate is still lower than last year, and the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season in the downstream has not emerged. It is recommended to keep a wait - and - see attitude for now and pay attention to the new cotton purchase price [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price is 13,270 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; cotton futures' top 20 net positions are - 74,836 hands, down 8,212 hands; the main contract's cotton position is 580,856 hands, up 12,867 hands; cotton's warehouse receipt quantity is 2,773 sheets, down 50 sheets. The main contract closing price of cotton yarn is 19,325 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan; cotton yarn futures' top 20 net positions are - 506 hands, up 54 hands; the main contract's cotton yarn position is 18,204 hands, up 1,792 hands; cotton yarn's warehouse receipt quantity is 0 sheets, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) is 12,808 yuan/ton, down 81 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) is 14,674 yuan/ton; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) is 13,856 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 20,440 yuan/ton, unchanged; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32s is 21,224 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the arrival price of imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32s is 22,491 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sowing area is 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output is 6.16 million tons, an increase of 540,000 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference is 5,766 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan; the national industrial inventory of cotton is 870,000 tons, up 13,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton is 70,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn is 130,000 tons, up 20,000 tons; the daily import cotton profit is 889 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan; the national commercial inventory of cotton is 1.4817 million tons, down 708,100 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days are 26.58 days, down 0.65 days; the grey fabric inventory days are 33.87 days, down 1.31 days; the monthly cloth output is 2.701 billion meters, up 0.01 billion meters; the monthly yarn output is 2.0279 million tons, up 36,400 tons; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories is 1.4145904 billion US dollars, down 101.5855 million US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns and fabrics is 1.2393202 billion US dollars, up 78.9193 million US dollars [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for cotton is 9.06%, down 0.66%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for cotton is 9.06%, down 0.65%; the 20 - day historical volatility of cotton is 6.98%, down 0.31%; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton is 7.77%, up 0.01% [2]. Industry News - As of October 9, the yarn inventory of major textile enterprises decreased, mainly due to accelerated pre - holiday shipments and a reduction in the operating rate of textile enterprises. The inventory of large factories in Xinjiang is about 35 days, and that of inland enterprises is 10 - 15 days. ICE cotton futures declined slightly on Tuesday due to weakening global cotton demand expectations [2].