瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall tone of recent statements from Fed officials remains dovish, with the performance of the employment market still being the focus of subsequent attention. The repeated tariff expectations and the continued shutdown of the US government continue to boost the safe - haven property of precious metals. The Fed's dovish interest - rate stance may also provide strong support for gold prices. However, due to the significant short - term increases in gold and silver futures prices, there is a need to guard against the risk of a pullback. It is recommended to wait and see for now. The focus range for the Shanghai Gold main 2512 contract is 930 - 980 yuan/gram, and for the Shanghai Silver main 2512 contract, it is 11200 - 12200 yuan/kilogram [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract is 960.34 yuan/gram, up 21.36 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract is 11966 yuan/kilogram, up 433 yuan. The main contract positions are 230686 hands for Shanghai Gold, up 2227 hands, and 477807 hands for Shanghai Silver, up 10117 hands. The net positions of the top 20 for the Shanghai Gold main contract are 137507 hands, down 176 hands; for Shanghai Silver, they are 98167 hands, up 1937 hands. The warehouse receipt quantities are 75099 kilograms for gold, up 2916 kilograms, and 1030429 kilograms for silver, down 32643 kilograms. The spot prices from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network are 954.2 yuan/gram for gold, up 2.2 yuan, and 11849 yuan/kilogram for silver, up 590 yuan [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract is - 6.14 yuan/gram, down 19.16 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract is - 117 yuan/kilogram, up 157 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - Gold ETF holdings are 1021.45 tons, up 2.57 tons; silver ETF holdings are 15733.09 tons, down 21.17 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC (weekly) are 266749 contracts, up 339 contracts; for silver, they are 52276 contracts, up 738 contracts. The total quarterly supply of gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total quarterly demand for gold is 1313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global annual demand for silver is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2] 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 22.87%, up 0.56%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 17.54%, up 0.41%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 27.49%, up 3.58%; for at - the - money put options, it is 27.5%, up 3.59% [2] 3.5 Industry News - The US has implemented final measures for a 301 investigation into China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding sectors, and Hanwha Ocean's US subsidiaries provided assistance. China has counter - measures against 5 US - related subsidiaries of Hanwha Ocean, banning domestic organizations and individuals from trading and cooperating with them. The US has announced tariff increases on China, and the Chinese Ministry of Commerce has urged the US to correct its wrong actions. Fed Chairman Powell hinted that officials may stop shrinking the balance sheet in the next few months, admitting to signs of tightening in the money market. The London gold price has risen above the $4200 mark, and silver prices have also risen following the strength of gold. Trump's statement about stopping edible oil trade with China has made Sino - US relations tense again [2]