瑞达期货铝类产业日报-20251015

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina futures main contract is fluctuating weakly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and strengthening basis. It is recommended to trade with a light - position range - bound strategy, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The Shanghai aluminum main contract opened lower and rebounded slightly, with decreasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. It is advisable to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. - The cast aluminum main contract opened lower and rebounded slightly, with increasing open interest, spot premium, and weakening basis. It is suggested to conduct light - position short - term long trading on dips, controlling rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Prices and Spreads: The closing price of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 20,910 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract is 2,797 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan. The main - second - consecutive contract spread of Shanghai aluminum is - 80 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan; that of alumina is - 6 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan [2]. - Open Interest: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 148,539 lots, down 10,640 lots; that of the alumina main contract is 361,466 lots, up 5,093 lots [2]. - LME Data: The LME aluminum cancelled warrants are 98,250 tons, unchanged; the LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation is 2,739.5 dollars/ton, down 17.5 dollars; the LME aluminum inventory is 503,950 tons, down 2,050 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - Aluminum Spot Prices: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum price is 20,920 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum price is 20,930 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2]. - Alumina Spot Price: The alumina spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous is 2,865 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - Other Spot Data: The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide is 21,050 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the Shanghai Wumaotrade aluminum premium is 40 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the LME aluminum premium is 10.22 dollars/ton, down 11.03 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina Production and Supply: The alumina production is 792.47 million tons, up 35.98 million tons; the alumina capacity utilization rate is 86.74%, up 1.99 percentage points; the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part is 725.80 million tons, up 3.73 million tons; the supply - demand balance of alumina is 28.73 million tons, up 12.41 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap Trade: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap is 16,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; China's import volume of aluminum scrap is 172,610.37 tons, up 12,115.77 tons; the export volume is 53.23 tons, down 26.16 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Electrolytic Aluminum: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is 4,523.20 million tons, unchanged; the electrolytic aluminum production capacity in operation has increased slightly; the electrolytic aluminum open - rate is 98.27%, up 0.16 percentage points; the electrolytic aluminum social inventory is 60.40 million tons, up 1.00 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Products: The aluminum products production is 554.82 million tons, up 6.45 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products is 52.10 million tons, down 0.90 million tons; the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots is 65.65 million tons, up 2.06 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy is 2.91 million tons, up 0.42 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - Automobile Production: The automobile production is 275.24 million vehicles, up 24.21 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate Index: The National Housing Prosperity Index is 93.05, down 0.28 [2]. 3.6 Alumina Viewpoint - Fundamentals: Affected by the reduced shipments in Guinea due to climate reasons, the domestic bauxite supply will continue to decline, and the bauxite price is firm. The alumina spot price is weakening, but smelters still have profit margins, so the supply remains stable. The increase in electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has a limited impact on alumina consumption [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are expanding [2]. 3.7 Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - Fundamentals: The supply of alumina is excessive, and its price is weakening. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity has increased slightly. With good profit margins for smelters, the supply of electrolytic aluminum is increasing slightly. The demand for downstream aluminum products is expected to improve after the holidays and due to policies [2]. - Options: The put - call ratio is 1.24, up 0.0405, indicating a bullish sentiment in the options market, and the implied volatility has slightly decreased [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars have just appeared [2]. 3.8 Casting Aluminum Alloy Viewpoint - Fundamentals: The cost of cast aluminum is rising due to the strong aluminum price and tight scrap aluminum supply, but the supply may decrease. The market consumption is gradually recovering after the holidays, but the spot purchase by downstream enterprises is cautious, and the inventory is accumulating [2]. - Technical Analysis: The 60 - minute MACD shows that the double lines are below the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging [2].